The natural background of water and soil resources and the amount of water and land used for agriculture were combined. The set pair analysis was used to reconstruct the matching index of agricultural water and soil resources, and the seven-element semi-partial subtraction set pair potential was constructed to analyze the matching of agricultural water and soil resources in the Jianghuai Hilly Area from 2005 to 2019. The results show that from 2005 to 2019, the proportion of generalized agricultural water and soil resources in the Jianghuai Hilly Area shows a basic downward trend, but it is higher than the natural proportion of water and soil resources. The water consumption per unit of arable land shows a decreasing trend, but it exceeds the natural water supply in the region and is in a relatively water shortage state. The ratio of narrow agricultural water and soil resources and the natural ratio of water and soil resources show cross fluctuations, and there is a certain degree of inverse correlation. An increase in precipitation will relatively reduce the water consumption for agricultural irrigation. From 2005 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2019, the generalized agricultural soil and water resources in the Jianghuai Hilly Area were in a highly mismatched state, with Hefei and Chuzhou having the highest mismatch degree and Anqing having the lowest. The matching set of agricultural water and soil resources during the two periods has a negative trend, with a poor matching state. However, the matching state has improved in the later stages and has a positive development trend, of which the change degree in Anqing and Lu'an is the most obvious. The interannual variation of precipitation in the Jianghuai hilly area is significant, and the fluctuation of total water resources is significantly higher than that of agricultural water and land use, resulting in asynchronous changes in agricultural water and land use and total water resources. This is the main reason for the fluctuation of water and soil resource matching.