京津冀水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价
作者:
作者单位:

(1.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038;2.北京林业大学水土保持学院,北京 100083)

作者简介:

李溦(1993—),女,博士研究生,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:296121004@qq.com 通信作者:姜珊(1987—),女,高级工程师,博士,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:jiangs@iwhr.com

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中图分类号:

TV213.4

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金项目(52025093,52239004,52061125101,52109042)


Safety evaluation of water-energy-food coupling system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;2.School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

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    摘要:

    为实现京津冀水-能源-粮食协同合作,从可靠性、协同性和韧性3方面选取31个指标构建水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价指标体系,分析了2000—2020年京津冀水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全水平,并基于Copula函数计算联合风险概率。结果表明:2000—2020年京津冀水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全指数整体呈现上升趋势,其中北京年均指数最高,达0.63,河北最低,仅为0.48;各区域间可靠性水平无显著差异,均呈现较差水平;人均水资源量、人均能源消费量、地下水供水占比、二氧化碳排放量等是影响水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全的主要障碍因子;京津冀可靠性、协同性和韧性三维联合达到较安全水平的概率为0.723,不均衡发展会影响整体水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全。

    Abstract:

    In order to realize the water-energy-food cooperation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, 31 indicators were selected to construct a safety index system for water-energy-food coupling system from reliability, synergy and resilience. The security level of water-energy-food coupling system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed, and the joint risk probability was calculated based on Copula function. The results show that the security index of water-energy-food coupling system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region shows an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2020. The annual average index of Beijing is the highest, reaching 0.63, and that of Hebei is the lowest, only 0.48. There is no significant difference in reliability levels among different regions, and they all exhibit poor levels. The main obstacles influencing the security of the water-energy-food coupling system include per capita water resources, per capita energy consumption, the proportion of groundwater supply, and carbon dioxide emissions. The probability of achieving a relatively safe level of reliability, synergy, and resilience in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is 0.723, and uneven development will affect the overall security of the water-energy-food coupling system.

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李溦,姜珊,赵勇,等.京津冀水-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价[J].水资源保护,2023,39(5):39-48.(LI Wei, JIANG Shan, ZHAO Yong, et al. Safety evaluation of water-energy-food coupling system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(5):39-48.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-28
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