基于余留期效益函数的水光互补随机优化调度方法
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(河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210098)

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闻昕(1987—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水利水电调度运行研究。E-mail:njwenxin@163.com 通信作者:谭乔凤(1991—),女,青年教授,博士,主要从事水利水电调度运行研究。E-mail:qiaofengtan@126.com

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国家自然科学基金面上项目(52079040)


Research on stochastic optimal operation of hydro-photovoltaic complementary based on utility function of carryover stage
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(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    针对多能互补模式下水库调度面临径流、新能源出力等多重不确定性叠加影响,以及如何协调近期效益和远期效益的最优余留库容等关键问题,提出了一种基于余留期效益函数的水光互补随机优化调度方法。结合数学期望模型提出了水光互补调度两阶段随机优化决策框架,基于水库调度的周期性马尔科夫特性,采用逐步迭代方法对多能互补系统的余留期效益函数进行近似逼近,以实现有限预报信息条件下水库长期余留库容动态决策。以锦屏一级水光互补系统为实例进行验证,结果表明:余留期效益函数受光伏出力影响较小,而与余留库容、径流呈正相关有关系;随着调度时段从枯期进入汛期,余留期效益函数逐渐从线性曲面变为凸曲面;相较于常规调度方法,提出的调度方法多年平均发电量在率定期、检验期分别增加了2.70亿、2.51亿kW·h,在径流、光伏出力预报信息相对较小的条件下,能有效指导水光互补系统的长期调度运行。

    Abstract:

    In response to the multiple uncertainties such as runoff and new energy output in reservoir operation under the multi energy complementary mode, as well as key issues such as how to determine the optimal remaining storage capacity that can coordinate short-term and long-term benefits, a hydro-photovoltaic complementary stochastic optimal operation method based on the utility function of the carryover stage was studied. Firstly, combine the mathematical expectation model to derive a two-stage decision-making framework of hydro-photovoltaic complementarity, and then establish a two-stage stochastic optimization operation model of hydro-photovoltaic complementarity based on the utility function of the carryover stage to realize the dynamic decision-making of carryover storage under limited forecast information. Taking Jinping level 1 hydro-photovoltaic complementary system as an example for verification, the results show that the utility function of the carryover stage is less affected by the photovoltaic output, but positively related to the carryover storage and runoff. With the operation period from dry season to flood season, the utility function of the carryover stage gradually changes from linear surface to convex surface. Compared with the conventional operation method, the average annual power generation of the two-stage operation method has increased by 270 million kWh and 251 million kWh respectively in the periodic and inspection periods. Under the condition of relatively small predicted information on runoff and photovoltaic output, the method can effectively guide the long-term scheduling and operation of hydro-photovoltaic complementary systems.

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闻昕,秦济森,谭乔凤,等.基于余留期效益函数的水光互补随机优化调度方法[J].水资源保护,2023,39(6):23-31, 62.(WEN Xin, QIN Jisen, TAN Qiaofeng, et al. Research on stochastic optimal operation of hydro-photovoltaic complementary based on utility function of carryover stage[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(6):23-31, 62.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-03-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-01
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