基于系统动力学的城市社会经济干旱模拟与对策研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东 广州 510635;2.广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室,广东 广州 510635;3.河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东 广州 510635;4.中山大学土木工程学院,广东 珠海 528478)

作者简介:

赵璧奎(1985—),男,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事抗旱减灾、水资源规划与管理研究。E-mail:674860282@qq.com 通信作者:李宁宁(1994—),女,博士,主要从事水资源规划与管理研究。E-mail:465956539@qq.com

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基金项目:

粤港水安全保障联合实验室项目(2020B1212030005);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52309014);广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B1111380003);广东省水利科技创新项目(2021-01);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2022A1515010898);广州市科技计划项目(202201011541)


Urban socio-economic drought simulation and countermeasure study based on system dynamics
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Affiliation:

(1.Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510635, China;2.Guangdong Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamic Research, Guangzhou 510635, China;3.State and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuarine Hydraulic Technology, Guangzhou 510635, China;4.Civil Engineering School, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai 528478, China)

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    摘要:

    为解决城市旱情分析和抗旱决策技术问题,在分析社会经济干旱特点基础上,提出了城市干旱风险调控思路,构建了城市供水网络系统动力学模型。以广东省汕尾市公平水库供水片区为例,以水文干旱为输入条件,推演了旱情发展趋势,定量评估了抗旱措施在干旱风险调控中的效果。结果表明:在特大干旱情景下,公平水库供水片区通过采取生活节水、限制工农业和生态用水、启用水库补水、实施黄江应急供水工程、动用死库容供水等综合措施,可保障调度期内基本用水需求;所建立的城市供水网络系统动力学模型揭示了水文干旱引发社会经济干旱的链式传导机制,实现了社会经济干旱情景精准模拟和抗旱措施效果反馈和推演。

    Abstract:

    In order to solve technical problems of drought analysis and drought-resistance decision making in cities, a new idea of urban drought risk control was put forward, and a system dynamics model of urban water supply network was constructed based on analysis of socio-economic drought characteristics. Taking the water supply region of Gongping Reservoir in Shanwei City of Guangdong Province as an example, the development trend of drought was deduced with hydrological drought as the input condition, and the effect of drought-resistance measures in drought risk control was evaluated quantitatively. The results show that under the extreme drought scenario, the basic water demand of the water supply region of Gongping Reservoir can be guaranteed during the operation period by adopting comprehensive measures, including reducing domestic water consumption, restricting water use in agriculture, industry, and ecology, replenishing reservoir water, implementing the Huangjiang River emergency project of water supply, and using the dead storage capacity of the reservoir for water supply. The established urban water supply network system dynamics model reveals the chain transmission mechanism of hydrological drought to socio-economic drought, and realizes the accurate simulation of socio-economic drought and the feedback and inference of drought-resistance measures.

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赵璧奎,邱静,李宁宁,等.基于系统动力学的城市社会经济干旱模拟与对策研究[J].水资源保护,2023,39(6):63-69, 129.(ZHAO Bikui, QIU Jing, LI Ningning, et al. Urban socio-economic drought simulation and countermeasure study based on system dynamics[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(6):63-69, 129.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-01
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