基于XGBoost算法的跨境河流水资源争端影响因素分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100;2.江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏 南京 211100)

作者简介:

施国良(1966—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事自然语言处理与数据挖掘研究。E-mail:shigl@hhu.edu.cn

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中图分类号:

TV213.4

基金项目:

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B200207036);国家自然科学基金项目(71974053)


XGBoost-based analysis of factors affecting water resources disputes in transboundary rivers
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Affiliation:

(1.Business School of Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, China.)

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    摘要:

    为分析跨境河流水资源争端的关键影响因素对争端的影响规律,基于跨境淡水争端数据库(TFDD)构建了跨境河流水资源争端评价指标体系,并采用XGBoost算法计算得到评价指标的权重;分析了国家人口密度、人均国内可再生淡水资源量、地区因素、事件主要问题类型、流域面积和事件发生的月份对跨境河流水资源争端的影响,并选取6条代表河流进行了争端事件聚焦分析,统计了每条代表河流的主要问题类型,分析了引发跨境河流水资源争端的代表性问题。结果表明:涉事国家人口密度、人均国内可再生淡水资源量和地区因素对跨境河流水资源争端的影响最大;引发跨境河流水资源争端的代表性问题包括地区气候特征、水污染以及基础设施建设等。

    Abstract:

    In order to analyze the impact of key factors on transboundary river water resource disputes, an evaluation index system of transboundary river water resource disputes is established based on the transboundary river dispute database (TFDD) , and the weight of evaluation index was calculated by XGBoost algorithm; the impacts of national population density, per capita domestic renewable fresh water resources, regional factors, event types, basin area and event month on transboundary river water resource disputes are analyzed; six representative rivers were selected for the focused analysis of disputes. The main problem types of each representative river are counted, and the representative problems leading to transboundary river water resource disputes are analyzed. The results show that the population density of the countries involved, the amount of domestic renewable freshwater resources per capita, and regional factors have the greatest impact on water resource disputes in transboundary rivers; representative issues that trigger water resource disputes in transboundary rivers include regional climate characteristics, water pollution, and infrastructure construction, etc.

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引用本文

施国良,薛航.基于XGBoost算法的跨境河流水资源争端影响因素分析[J].水资源保护,2023,39(6):137-144.(SHI Guoliang, XUE Hang. XGBoost-based analysis of factors affecting water resources disputes in transboundary rivers[J]. Water Resources Protection,2023,39(6):137-144.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-12-01
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