基于再分析降水资料的青藏高原典型流域径流模拟分析
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(1.上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海 200335;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

徐华亭(1990—),女,工程师,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:xuht_hydro@163.com 通信作者:吴志勇(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zywu@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

上海勘测设计研究院有限公司科标业项目(2022QT(831)-006,2021SL(8)-014);国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U2240225)


Runoff simulation analysis of typical watershed in Tibetan Plateau based on reanalysis precipitation data
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Affiliation:

(1.Shanghai Investigation, Design & Research Institute, Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200335, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    基于实测资料、中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(CMFD)和ERA5-Land再分析降水资料,构建了青藏高原尼洋河更张站以上流域的可变下渗能力(VIC)模型,评估再分析降水资料和VIC模型在资料缺乏地区径流模拟中的适用性,并探究了VIC模型分辨率对径流模拟结果的影响。结果表明:在资料严重缺乏地区,基于实测资料的VIC模型难以反映径流的实际情况,而采用再分析降水资料可以明显提升流域径流模拟精度;与基于CMFD再分析数据的VIC模型模拟结果相比,基于ERA5-Land再分析数据的模型径流模拟精度更高,月径流模拟结果的纳什效率系数达到0.76,表明ERA5-Land再分析降水资料和VIC模型在研究区具有较好的适用性,但模型对洪峰模拟结果的精度需要进一步提高;VIC模型径流模拟精度随着其分辨率的提高有所提升,当模型分辨率由10km提高到1km时,月径流模拟结果的纳什效率系数提高了9.1%,相对误差减小了16.5%;较高分辨率的VIC模型对峰现时间、洪峰流量模拟更准确,但是难以模拟退水过程。

    Abstract:

    Based on precipitation data of the Qinghai Lake Basin from 2010 to 2020, the ANUSPLIN interpolation method was used to invert the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.A digital watershed model of the Qinghai Lake Basin was constructed by combining hydrological, meteorological, and earth remote sensing interpretation data, and the model parameters were calibrated and verified.The model was applied to explore the impact of underlying surface changes on watershed hydrological processes, analyze the evolution laws and driving mechanisms of water cycle in the Qinghai Lake Basin, and conduct sensitivity analysis on key parameters.The results show that during the calibration and validation periods, the NashSutcliffe efficiency coefficients of the Buhahekou Station are 0.72 and 0.67, respectively, while those of the Gangcha Station are 0.81 and 0.84, indicating that the digital watershed model is suitable for simulating longterm spatiotemporal sequences of precipitation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The vertical and the horizontal infiltration rates of soil mainly affect the peak of runoff, with the horizontal infiltration rate of surface soil being the most sensitive.The soil porosity and initial water content mainly affect the base flow of runoff, with the initial water content of the middle soil being the most sensitive.

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徐华亭,吴志勇,陈瑞方,等.基于再分析降水资料的青藏高原典型流域径流模拟分析[J].水资源保护,2024,40(4):92-98, 147.(XU Huating, WU Zhiyong, CHEN Ruifang, et al. Runoff simulation analysis of typical watershed in Tibetan Plateau based on reanalysis precipitation data[J]. Water Resources Protection,2024,40(4):92-98, 147.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-08-02
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