基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型的应用
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(1.北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京 100875;2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101;3.临沂市自然资源和规划局,山东 临沂 276001;4.北京市水科学技术研究院,北京 100048 )

作者简介:

魏豪杉(1997—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:weihs1997@mail.bnu.edu.cn 通信作者:王红瑞(1963—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水资源系统分析和环境规划与评价研究。E-mail:henrywang@bnu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52279005);国家发展和改革委员会“四水四定”政策研究项目(23-10-13)


Application of water resources spatial equilibrium-based “defining city, land, population, and industry based on water” regulation and control model
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;3.Linyi Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, Linyi 276001, China;4.Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute, Beijing 100048, China)

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    摘要:

    将前期研究构建的基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型应用于山东省临沂市水资源空间均衡动态调控,在预测各区(县)用水量和用水指标的基础上,探究了各区(县)未来水资源空间均衡度,在不同时间尺度上对未来用水量进行了动态调控。结果表明:调控模型可靠性高且具备普适性;当前用水模式下临沂市未来水资源在空间上处于绝对均衡状态,仅水土匹配系数处于一般均衡状态;对各区(县)不同类型未来用水量进行动态调控,可在不同时间尺度上使临沂市水资源空间均衡的各项指标达到绝对均衡状态;在“四水四定”与水资源空间均衡的约束下,通过对未来长短期用水量的动态调控,临沂市预期用水量能够实现动态均衡。

    Abstract:

    In response to the practical problem of insufficient consideration of the impact of multi stakeholder game relationships on reservoir operation decisions in the traditional centralized multiobjective optimization paradigm, which makes it difficult to guarantee the ecological flow of rivers, two scenarios of joint guarantee and individual guarantee ecological flow were set up. A leaderfollower game optimal operation model for cascade reservoirs under the principle of power generation obeying flood control scheduling was established, and a case study was conducted on PangduoZhikong cascade reservoirs in the Lhasa River Basin. The results indicate that cascade reservoirs have the optimal comprehensive benefits under the joint guarantee of ecological flow. It is difficult to highlight the operation benefits under the ecological flow guaranteed by the Zhikong Reservoir alone, in which the flood control benefits are reduced by 4.35%, and the power generation benefits are reduced by 1.66%. The main reason for the decrease in benefits is that under the single reservoir guarantee mode, the Pangduo Reservoir tends to retain water and reduce discharge during the dry season, which leads to the excessive decline in the water level of the Zhikong Reservoir to ensure the ecological flow.

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魏豪杉,王红瑞,郏鹏鑫,等.基于水资源空间均衡的“四水四定”调控模型的应用[J].水资源保护,2024,40(5):78-85, 130.(WEI Haoshan, WANG Hongrui, JIA Pengxin, et al. Application of water resources spatial equilibrium-based “defining city, land, population, and industry based on water” regulation and control model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2024,40(5):78-85, 130.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-06
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