长三角城市群洪涝韧性时空演化及影响因素
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(1.河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100;2.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;3. 河海大学江苏长江保护与高质量发展研究基地,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

陈军飞(1973—),男,教授,博士,主要从事洪旱灾害风险管理研究。E-mail:chenjunfei@hhu.edu.cn 通信作者:张玉琦(1999—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事灾害风险管理研究。E-mail:zhangyuqi@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA084);国家自然科学基金项目(42071278);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(B240207033,B240207117)


Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration
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(1.Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Jiangsu Research Base of Yangtze Institute for Conservation and High-quality Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为加快长三角城市群韧性城市建设,助力区域一体化高质量发展,基于压力状态响应框架,利用2015—2021年长三角城市群面板数据,采用熵权TOPSIS法、核密度估计法、空间马尔科夫链和地理探测器模型,分析了长三角城市群洪涝韧性时空演化规律及影响因素。结果表明:长三角城市群洪涝韧性呈波动式上升趋势,由2015年的0.393提升到2021年的0.441,但中低韧性城市比例较高;区域洪涝韧性发展不均衡,呈现以省会城市为中心的多中心态势,存在极化现象;城市洪涝韧性呈低韧性向高韧性转移的态势,高韧性城市维持自身状态概率较高且对周边城市表现出正向空间溢出效应;城市洪涝韧性的空间异质性是多因子综合作用的结果,因子间的交互作用具有双因子增强效应。

    Abstract:

    To accelerate the construction of resilient cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, with the goal of facilitating the integrated and high-quality development, this study used the panel data of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2015 to 2021 and adopted the entropy weight-TOPSIS method, kernel density estimation, spatial Markov chains, and geodetector model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of flood resilience and the influencing factors of cities in the Yangtze River Delta based on the pressure-state-response framework. The results show that the flood resilience of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration shows a fluctuating upward trend, with the data increasing from 0.393 in 2015 to 0.441 in 2021, but the proportion of cities in the state of medium and low resilience is high. The development of regional flood resilience is uneven, presenting a polycentric situation centered at the provincial capital city, with the occurrence of polarization phenomenon. Urban flood resilience is transferred from low resilience to high resilience, and high resilience cities demonstrate a high probability to maintain their own state and have a positive spatial spillover effect on neighboring cities. Spatial heterogeneity in urban flood resilience is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors, and the interaction between factors has a double factor enhancement effect.

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陈军飞,张玉琦,嵇娟,等.长三角城市群洪涝韧性时空演化及影响因素[J].水资源保护,2024,40(6):58-68.(CHEN Junfei, ZHANG Yuqi, JI Juan, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of flood resilience in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration[J]. Water Resources Protection,2024,40(6):58-68.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-02-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-02
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