气候变化下基于经济损失量化的北京市内涝韧性评估
作者:
作者单位:

(1.北京师范大学环境学院,北京 100875;2.北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京 100875;3.北京工业大学城市建筑工程学院,北京 100124 )

作者简介:

邹家祥(1995—),男,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化与城市内涝韧性研究。E-mail:iwhrzjx@163.com 通信作者:陈彬(1972—),男,教授,博士,主要从事韧性城市环境生态风险研究。E-mail:chenb@bnu.edu.cn

基金项目:

北京市自然科学基金项目(9222017);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091511);湖南省科技创新计划项目(2023RC4008)


Assessment of waterlogging resilience in Beijing based on quantification of economic losses under climate change//
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3.College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)

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    摘要:

    针对未来不同气候情景与降雨重现期,基于InfoWorks ICM城市内涝模型,耦合内涝经济损失核算,刻画了北京市系统性能曲线。考虑内涝韧性的抵抗力、适应力和恢复力,建立了北京市内涝韧性动态评估体系,定量评估了未来气候变化对北京市内涝韧性的影响。结果表明:SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5 3种气候变化情景与降雨重现期分别为5、20、50、100a的组合情景下,北京市的内涝韧性水平较高;不同土地利用类型中工业区韧性水平最高,居住区韧性水平最低,北京市内环内涝韧性水平明显低于外环。

    Abstract:

    Based on the InfoWorks ICM urban waterlogging model and coupled with the economic loss calculation of waterlogging, the system performance curve of Beijing was characterized under different climate scenarios in the future and rainfall recurrence periods. A dynamic assessment system for waterlogging resilience in Beijing was established, taking into account the resistance, adaptability, and resilience of waterlogging. The impact of future climate change on waterlogging resilience in Beijing was quantitatively evaluated. The results show that under the combination scenarios of SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climate change and rainfall recurrence periods of 5,20, 50, and 100 a, respectively, Beijing has a higher level of waterlogging resilience. Among different land use types, industrial areas have the highest resilience level, while residential areas have the lowest resilience level. The waterlogging resilience level of Beijing inner ring area is significantly lower than that of the outer ring area. Keywords: urban waterlogging resilience; system performance curve; quantification of economic losses; InfoWorks ICM model; climate change scenario; Beijing City 〖FL

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邹家祥,段存存,陈彬,等.气候变化下基于经济损失量化的北京市内涝韧性评估[J].水资源保护,2024,40(6):85-94.(ZOU Jiaxiang, DUAN Cuncun, CHEN Bin, et al. Assessment of waterlogging resilience in Beijing based on quantification of economic losses under climate change//[J]. Water Resources Protection,2024,40(6):85-94.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-02