水网构建对汾河流域水资源系统韧性演变的影响
作者:
作者单位:

(1.华北水利水电大学水资源学院,河南 郑州 450046;2.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029;3.水利部黄河水利委员会,河南 郑州 450003;4.中国水利水电科学研究院水生态环境研究所,北京 100038;5.黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司规划研究院,河南 郑州 450003 )

作者简介:

万芳(1982—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事水旱灾害防御与水资源优化配置研究。E-mail:wanxf1023@163.com 通信作者:王煜(1968—),男,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事水利规划与水文水资源研究。E-mail:happytimes@126.com

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金项目(52479014);水灾害防御全国重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2023nkzd02);水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室(筹)研究基金项目(2023-SYSJJ-05)


Influences of water network construction on water resources system resilience evolution in the Fenhe River Basin//
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;2.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;3.Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450003, China;4.Department of Water Ecology and Environment Research, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;5.Planning and Research Institute, Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China)

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    摘要:

    为研究水网构建对汾河流域水资源系统韧性演变的影响,针对汾河流域水资源系统韧性在系统、空间、时间维度上的不断演化发展,考虑到水资源系统韧性对初始条件的敏感依赖性以及韧性的非线性和不可预测性等特征符合混沌理论的主要特征,基于混沌理论构建了水资源系统韧性评价模型,分析了2017—2021年汾河流域水资源系统韧性时空演变特征,分别以2020年、2035年为基准年和水平年,探究了2035年有、无水网情况下,汾河流域水资源系统韧性水平的变化情况。结果表明:2017—2020年汾河流域水资源系统韧性水平波动较小,总体呈现上升趋势,且表现为西部高于东部、北部高于南部的空间分布特征,2021年水资源系统韧性水平有所下降;相较于基准年,无水网情况下2035年流域和各地区水资源系统韧性水平均有不同程度的下降;有水网情况下2035年流域水资源系统韧性水平相较于无水网情况有大幅度提升,各地区消除了低韧性水平,水网构建对流域水资源系统韧性的提升效果显著。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the water network construction influences on the water resources system resilience evolution in the Fenhe River Basin, and in consideration of the continuous evolution of the water resources system resilience in the systemic, spatial, and temporal dimensions, as well as the sensitive dependence of the water resources system resilience on initial conditions and the nonlinearity and unpredictability of the resilience that conform to the main characteristics of the chaos theory, a water resources system resilience evaluation model was developed based on the chaos theory. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the water resources system resilience in the Fenhe River Basin from 2017 to 2021 were studied. With 2020 and 2035 taken as the base year and level year, respectively, the resilience level of the water resources system in the Fenhe River Basin with and without water network in 2035 was explored. The results show that the resilience level of the water resources system in the Fenhe River Basin fluctuated little from 2017 to 2020, showing an overall upward trend, with the water resources system resilience in the west and the north being higher than that in the east and the south, and the resilience level of the water resources system decreased in 2021. Compared with the base year, the resilience level of the water resources system in the Fenhe River Basin and different sub-regions will decrease to different degrees in 2035 without water network. In the case of a water network, the resilience level of the water resources system in the river basin in 2035 will be greatly improved, and the low resilience level will be eliminated in all sub-regions. Therefore, the construction of the water network will significantly improve the water resources system resilience in the river basin.Keywords: water resources system resilience; water network construction; chaos theory; complex networks; the Fenhe River Basin 〖FL

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万芳,王煜,王威浩,等.水网构建对汾河流域水资源系统韧性演变的影响[J].水资源保护,2025,41(1):19-26.(WAN Fang, WANG Yu, WANG Weihao, et al. Influences of water network construction on water resources system resilience evolution in the Fenhe River Basin//[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(1):19-26.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-03-04