中国年洪峰季节性的区域特征
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(1.清华大学土木工程学院,北京 100084;2.水利部信息中心,北京 100053 )

作者简介:

丁晨洋(2000—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:dcy22@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn 通信作者:杨汉波(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:yanghanbo@tsinghua.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(51979140);国家洪水预报平台关键技术研究及应用项目(SKS-2022136)


Regional characteristics of annual flood peak seasonality in China
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(1.School of of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2.Information Center, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China)

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    摘要:

    为分析中国各地区易受洪水影响的季节,揭示气候变化对洪水季节性的影响,收集了中国2719个水文站1960—2020年的年最大洪峰数据,采用循环统计方法和聚类分析方法,分析了最大洪峰出现时间的季节规律、空间聚集特征、年际变化规律。结果表明:年最大洪峰发生时间的集中度很高,一般在6—9月,由东南向西北逐渐推迟;根据洪水季节性可以聚类为贵州省和重庆市地区(集群1)、华南地区(集群2)、云南省等地区(集群3)、秦岭淮河以北地区(集群4)4个集群,其中集群2在空间上分布最集中;集群2和集群4的年最大洪峰发生时间分别呈显著推迟和提前趋势,集群1的发生时间基本不变。

    Abstract:

    In order to determine the flood-prone seasons in various regions of China, and reveal the impact of climate change on flood seasonality, the annual maximum flood peak data of 2719 hydrological stations in China from 1960 to 2020 were collected. The seasonal rules, spatial clustering characteristics, and interannual variation rules of the maximum flood peak occurrence time were analyzed by using cyclic statistical method and cluster analysis method. The results show that the occurrence time of the annual maximum flood peak is highly concentrated, generally from June to September, and gradually delayed from southeast to northwest. According to the flood seasonality, four clusters can be grouped into Guizhou Province and Chongqing(cluster 1), South China (cluster 2), Yunnan Province and other regions (cluster 3), and Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River north (Cluster 4), among which cluster 2 has the most concentrated spatial distribution. The occurrence time of the annual maximum flood peak in cluster 2 and cluster 4 shows a significantly delayed and advanced trend, respectively, while the occurrence time of cluster 1 is basically unchanged.

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丁晨洋,杨汉波,杨文聪,等.中国年洪峰季节性的区域特征[J].水资源保护,2025,41(2):142-148.(DING Chenyang, YANG Hanbo, YANG Wencong, et al. Regional characteristics of annual flood peak seasonality in China[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(2):142-148.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-17
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-14
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