基于因果分析的金沙江流域气象-水文干旱传播特征及其未来情景预估
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(1.长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司,湖北 武汉 430010;2.河北省水文勘测研究中心,河北 石家庄 050031;3.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072 )

作者简介:

张丹(1994—),女,工程师,博士,主要从事水资源管理研究。E-mail:zhangdan_main@163.com 通信作者:梁瀚续(1999—),男,博士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:767355988@qq.com

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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200302)


Meteorological drought to hydrological drought propagation characteristics in the Jinsha River Basin and their prediction under future scenarios based on causal analysis
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Affiliation:

(1.Changjiang Survey, Planning, Design and Research Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430010, China;2.Hebei Hydrologic Survey and Research Center, Shijiazhuang 050031, China;3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)

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    摘要:

    为探究干旱发生发展机理,减轻旱灾损失,基于标准化降水指数和径流指数,采用收敛交叉映射算法,从因果性的视角分析了金沙江流域气象-水文干旱的传播特征,并利用CMIP6气候模式预估了未来气候情景下的干旱传播特征。结果表明:历史时期(1985—2014年)金沙江流域汛期、枯水期干旱传播时间分别为1月和6~8月,汛期干旱传播率(0.90~0.97)大于枯水期(0.89~0.93),空间上屏山站干旱传播率最大,石鼓站次之,小得石站最小;相较于历史时期,流域未来(2030—2089年)汛期干旱传播时间几乎不变,枯水期变幅较大,空间上干流石鼓站和屏山站枯水期缩短1月,支流小得石站枯水期延长1~2月;与历史时期相比,流域未来干旱传播率增大,其中汛期干旱传播率增幅较小(2.50%~9.83%),枯水期增幅较大(5.82%~11.72%),空间上小得石站增幅最大,石鼓站次之,屏山站最小,且不同气候情景间干旱传播率增幅差异较小。

    Abstract:

    To explore the development mechanism and reduce the loss of droughts, based on standardized precipitation and runoff indices, the meteorological drought to hydrological drought propagation characteristics in the Jinsha River Basin were revealed from the perspective of causality using the convergent cross mapping method. The drought propagation characteristics under future climate scenarios were predicted using the CMIP6 climate model. The results show that the drought propagation time in the Jinsha River Basin during the historical period from 1985 to 2014 was one month and six to eight months in wet and dry seasons, respectively. The propagation rate in wet season during the historical period was larger(0.90~0.97) than that in dry season (0.89~0.93), and it was the largest at Pingshan Station, followed by that at Shigu Station, and lowest at Xiaodeshi Station. The drought propagation time in the future from 2030 to 2089 in the basin will have little change during wet season, but have a significant spatial difference during dry season, and it will be shortened by one month at Shigu and Pingshan stations in the mainstream, while be extended by one to two months at Xiaodeshi Station in the tributary. The drought propagation rate in the future will increase in the basin, with a small increase in wet season (2.50%~9.83%) and a large increase in dry season (5.82%~11.72%). In terms of spatial distribution, Xiaodeshi Station will have a larger increase in the drought propagation rate in the future, followed by Shigu Station, and Pingshan Station will have the smallest increase. Moreover, the differences in the increase of drought propagation rates between different climate scenarios will be relatively small in the future.

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张丹,要威,肖华,等.基于因果分析的金沙江流域气象-水文干旱传播特征及其未来情景预估[J].水资源保护,2025,41(2):158-164.(ZHANG Dan, YAO Wei, XIAO Hua, et al. Meteorological drought to hydrological drought propagation characteristics in the Jinsha River Basin and their prediction under future scenarios based on causal analysis[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(2):158-164.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-09
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-14
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