Abstract:In response to the significant reduction in runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River and the prominent issue of water supply-demand imbalance since the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, a robust game model for water resources allocation was established based on the spatial equilibrium criterion of water resources distribution, with maximization of the satisfaction degree of water allocation in three water consumption sectors, including domestic, industrial, and agricultural water consumption sectors, used as objective functions. The model was applied to analyze the changes in the satisfaction degree of water allocation among different sectors before and after the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, and the results were compared with those of the multi-objective optimization model. The results indicate that under uncertain condition, the robust game model enhances reliability by decreasing objective values, and the obtained robust equilibrium solutions are inferior to the Nash equilibrium solutions. After the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the overall water allocation satisfaction degree among different water consumption sectors decreased by 9.4%, with the domestic, industrial, and agricultural sectors experiencing decreases of 4.9%, 10.4%, and 12.9%, respectively. The agricultural water consumption sector that has the highest water demand shows the greatest sensitivity to changes in the robust parameter in terms of the water allocation satisfaction degree. Keywords: water resources allocation; robust game optimization; the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project; middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River 〖FL