复杂流域水资源系统风险多链路网络研究(Ⅱ):风险传播
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学流域水土过程省高校重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;4.长江水利委员会长江水文局,湖北 武汉 430010;5.水利部黄河水利委员会, 河南 郑州 450003;6.水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100120;7.黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南 郑州 450003 )

作者简介:

冯仲恺(1988—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:myfellow@163.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金项目(52379009,52441901);江苏省优秀青年基金项目(BK20240189);北京江河水利发展基金会水利青年科技英才项目(JHYC202310);湖北省自然科学基金三峡联合基金项目(2023AFD203);水灾害防御全国重点实验室自主研究项目(5240152E2)


Research on risky multi-link networks for complex watershed water resources system (Ⅱ):risk propagation
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Process in Watershed, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;4.Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010,China;5.Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Ministry of Water Resources, Zhengzhou 450003, China;6.General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China;7.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003,China)

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    摘要:

    为探明流域水资源系统风险传播过程,以风险多链路网络为基础,建立了统筹启动阶段、传播阶段、消退阶段的风险传播模型,提出了节点风险灵敏指数、链路承载风险量、网络风险扩散指数及网络结构脆弱性指数等风险传播指标,并进一步分析了典型年下的网络风险传播,构建了介数防控、度值防控、节点风险灵敏指数防控、随机防控等风险防控策略。结果表明:节点风险灵敏指数与节点负荷增量呈正相关关系;链路承载风险量与传播次数呈负相关关系,与风险源负荷增量呈正相关关系;一般情况下,网络风险扩散指数呈先增大后减小趋势,网络结构脆弱性指数呈持续衰减趋势,而且二者随消退系数、负荷保留系数动态变化;典型年情景下,特枯年、枯水年的网络风险传播指标变化较为显著;在减缓风险扩散程度时,防控效果由好到差依次为介数防控、度值防控、节点风险灵敏指数防控、随机防控、无防控策略,即优先调控介数中心性较大的关联要素可以降低网络风险传播速率;在削减风险节点数量时,防控效果由好到差依次为节点风险灵敏指数防控、随机防控、介数防控、度值防控、无防控策略,即优先调控节点风险灵敏指数较高的关联要素可以降低网络结构脆弱性。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the risk propagation process of the watershed water resources system, a risk propagation model was established based on a risk multi-link network, which includes the coordinated initiation stage, propagation stage, and dissipation stage. Risk propagation indicators, such as node risk sensitivity index, link carrying risk, network risk diffusion index and network structure vulnerability index, were proposed. Through these indicators, the comprehensive analysis of network risk propagation under typical hydrological years was conducted. And risk prevention strategies were constructed, such as betweenness control, degree control, node risk sensitivity index control, and random control. The results indicate that there is a positive correlation between the node risk sensitivity index and the node load increment. The risk carried by the link is negatively correlated with the number of transmissions, and positively correlated with the increase in load of the risk source. In general, the network risk diffusion index shows a first increasing and then decreasing trend, while the network structure vulnerability index shows a continuous decreasing trend, and both dynamically change with the attenuation coefficient and load retention coefficient. Under typical hydrological years, risk propagation indicators change significantly in extremely dry years and dry years. When slowing down the spread of risks, the prevention and control effects are ranked from good to poor as betweenness centrality prevention and control, degree value prevention and control, node risk sensitivity index prevention and control, random prevention and control, and no prevention and control strategies, which means prioritizing the regulation of the correlation elements with high betweenness centrality can reduce the spread rate of network risks. When reducing the number of risk nodes, the order of prevention and control effectiveness from good to poor is node risk sensitivity index prevention and control, random prevention and control, betweenness prevention and control, degree value prevention and control, and no prevention and control strategy. This indicates that prioritizing the control of associated elements with high node risk sensitivity index can reduce the vulnerability of network structure.

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冯仲恺,高浩宇,牛文静,等.复杂流域水资源系统风险多链路网络研究(Ⅱ):风险传播[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):1-12.(FENG Zhongkai, GAO Haoyu, NIU Wenjing, et al. Research on risky multi-link networks for complex watershed water resources system (Ⅱ):risk propagation[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):1-12.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-29
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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