基于CMIP6多模式集合的中国洪水热浪复合极端事件特征预测
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;3.暨南大学环境与气候学院,广东 广州 511443;4.暨南大学生命科学技术学院,广东 广州 510632 )

作者简介:

武传号(1985—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:wuch0907@hotmail.com

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240201056);广东省自然科学基金项目(2023A1515011760)


Characteristic projection of successive flood-heatwave extreme events in China based on CMIP6 multi-model ensembles
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.College of Environment and Climate, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China;4.College of Life Science and Technology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China)

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    基于14个CMIP6全球气候模式降尺度模拟结果,预测了未来SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下中国洪水-热浪复合极端(SFHE)事件及人口暴露度的时空变化特征,量化了气候效应、人口效应以及两者共同作用效应对人口暴露度的相对影响。结果表明:气候变暖加剧了未来华东和华南地区SFHE事件发生的风险,并导致SFHE事件历时及土地暴露度增长;SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下21世纪末中国SFHE事件年均频次与历史基准期(1961—2014年)相比,预计分别增加0.13、0.28、0.44次, SFHE事件平均历时分别增长1.4、3.9、8.1d,年土地暴露度分别增加6.0%、13.8%、18.3%,而洪水、热浪平均间隔分别缩短0.16、0.37、0.75d,SFHE事件突发性更强;未来SFHE事件人口暴露度增加的区域主要集中在中国东部和南部地区,由气候变化导致人口暴露度增加的效应逐渐增强。

    Abstract:

    Based on the downscaling simulations of 14 global climate models from CMIP6, the spatiotemporal changes and population exposure degree in successive flood-heatwave extreme(SFHE) events in China under the SSP12.6, SSP24.5, and SSP58.5 scenarios were projected. The relative effects of climate and population and their combined effects on the population exposure degree were quantified. The results indicate that climate warming exacerbates the risk of SFHE events in eastern and southern China in the future, and leads to the increases in the duration and land exposure degree of SFHE events. Overall, by the end of the 21st century, under the SSP12.6, SSP24.5, and SSP58.5 scenarios, the annual average frequency of SFHE events in China is expected to increase by 0.13, 0.28, and 0.44 times, respectively, relative to baseline period from 1961 to 2014. The average duration of SFHE events is expected to increase by 1.4, 3.9, and 8.1 d, respectively, the annual land exposure degree is expected to increase by 6.0%, 13.8%, and 18.3%, respectively, while the average interval between flood and heatwave is expected to decrease by 0.16, 0.37, and 0.75 d, respectively, indicating a stronger suddenness of SFHE events. The areas with a significant increase of the population exposure degree are mainly concentrated in eastern and southern China, and the effect of climate change on the increase of population exposure degree is gradually strengthening over time.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

武传号,逯家宝,周君,等.基于CMIP6多模式集合的中国洪水热浪复合极端事件特征预测[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):20-30.(WU Chuanhao, LU Jiabao, ZHOU Jun, et al. Characteristic projection of successive flood-heatwave extreme events in China based on CMIP6 multi-model ensembles[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):20-30.(in Chinese))

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-10-09
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
  • 出版日期: