晋城市洪涝驱动下微观与宏观耦合建模的社会系统响应及韧性分析
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(1.北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京 100875;2.城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京 100875;3.中国城市规划设计研究院,北京 100044 )

作者简介:

舒心怡(1998—),女,博士研究生,主要从事城市水文学研究。E-mail:shuxinyi@mail.bnu.edu.cn 通信作者:徐宗学(1962—),男,教授,博士,主要从事城市水文学研究。E-mail:zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239003);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52409005);中国博士后基金面上项目(2024M750224);粤港水安全保障联合实验室开放基金项目(GHJLWS-08)


Analysis of social system response and resilience under flood driving in Jincheng City through micro-macro coupled modeling
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2.Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology, Beijing 100875, China;3.China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Beijing 100044, China)

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    摘要:

    为深入解析晋城市洪涝复杂系统的自然与社会关系,从微观与宏观视角切入,采用多主体建模的方法对具有异质性的社会主体进行模型构建,捕捉系统的宏观涌现;基于系统动力学方法对社会整体层面的洪涝韧性特征进行演化分析,实现洪涝对社会端造成影响的定量评估。结果表明:随着降雨重现期增加,排水系统压力不断增加,溢流量及地表淹没面积增加,10年一遇降雨重现期下,水深为>0~0.15、>0.15~0.4、>0.4m时的积水面积分别为2.03、0.29、0.21km2;全局疏散模式下的疏散主体数呈增长率递减的上升态势,分区疏散模式下疏散主体数增长率先增大后减小,不同降雨重现期下单位距离出行任务数指标随时间推移呈现局部波动、整体增长率递减的上升态势,全局疏散模式下疏散耗时与疏散路程具有更好的均衡性;不同降雨重现期下城市洪涝韧性增量呈现出先增大后减小的趋势,场次暴雨洪涝中的城市洪涝适应能力增量呈增大趋势,抵抗能力增量约在峰现时间达到最小值,而后逐渐增大。

    Abstract:

    To deeply analyze the natural and social relationships in the complex flood system of Jincheng City, this study adopted aagent-based modeling approach to model heterogeneous social agents from both micro and macro perspectives, capturing the macro-level emergence of the system.Using system dynamics methods, it performed an evolutionary analysis of the flood resilience characteristics at the societal level, enabling a quantitative assessment of the flood’s impact on the social sector. The results show that as the rainfall return period increases, the pressure on the drainage system continuously rises, along with an increase in overflow and surface inundation areas. Under a 10-year rainfall return period, the flooded areas at the water depth of >0-0.15 m, >0.15-0.4 m, and >0.4 m are 2.03 km2,0.29 km2, and 0.21 km2, respectively. Under the global evacuation mode, the number of evacuated agents increases at a decreasing growth rate. Under the zonal evacuation mode, the growth rate of evacuated agents first increases and then decreases. The unit distance travel task indicator under different rainfall return periods shows local fluctuations, with an overall decreasing growth rate over time. The global evacuation mode exhibits a better balance between evacuation time and distance. The increment of urban flood resilience under different rainfall return periods shows an increasing trend followed by a decrease. The adaptive capacity increment for urban flood in heavy rain events shows an increasing trend, while the resistance capacity increment reaches its minimum value at the peak time and then gradually increases.

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舒心怡,徐宗学,叶陈雷,等.晋城市洪涝驱动下微观与宏观耦合建模的社会系统响应及韧性分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):65-74, 126.(SHU Xinyi, XU Zongxue, YE Chenlei, et al. Analysis of social system response and resilience under flood driving in Jincheng City through micro-macro coupled modeling[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):65-74, 126.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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