基于智能网格降水和水文滑坡耦合模型的全国洪水和滑坡灾害滚动预报
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;4.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,江苏 南京 210098;5.水利部水利大数据重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;6.水利部水循环与水动力系统重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;7.河海大学计算机与软件学院,江苏 南京 211100; 8.中国气象局国家气象中心,北京 100081 )

作者简介:

张春堂(1999—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:chuntangzhang@hhu.edu.cn 通信作者:张珂(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:kzhang@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500)


Flood and landslide disaster rolling forecast in China based on intelligent-grid precipitation and coupled hydrological-landslide model
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Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;4.China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Nanjing 210098, China;5.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, China;6.Key Laboratory of Hydrologic-Cycle and Hydrodynamic-System of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, China;7.College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; 8.National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China)

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    摘要:

    为解决洪水和滑坡灾害在大尺度下实时预报中面临驱动数据、土水参数难以获取以及计算负荷的问题,以水文-滑坡耦合模型(CRESLIDE)为基础,引入无缝隙精细化智能网格降水数据作为驱动因子,利用土壤厚度模型及土壤类型数据获取分布式土水参数,结合地表覆盖信息及累积降水量动态识别滑坡敏感区域,采用并行技术加速计算过程,构建了全国尺度的CRESLIDE模型,对2022—2023年降雨诱发洪水和滑坡灾害进行实时预报,并基于汛期6—8月的长序列和个例灾害对模型进行检验。结果表明:CRESLIDE模型在并行计算时的加速比最高可达5.53;洪水灾害整体上集中于华北和西南一带,滑坡灾害多发生在我国南方地区,7—8月北方滑坡开始增加;在长序列检验中,模型预报精度评价指标ROC曲线下面积均超过或接近0.7,其中洪水灾害预报效果优于滑坡灾害;在个例检验中,模型预测的灾害发生位置和时间与实测结果较为一致。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of obtaining driving data and soil-water parameters, as well as the computational load in real-time forecasting of flood and landslide disasters on a large scale, based on the coupled hydrological-landslide model(CRESLIDE), seamless refined intelligentgrid precipitation data were introduced as the driving factor. A soil thickness model and soil type data were employed to obtain distributed soilwater parameters, land cover information and accumulated rainfall were combined to dynamically identify landslidesensitive areas, and parallel computing technology was utilized to accelerate the computational process. Subsequently, a nationalscale CRESLIDE model was constructed to conduct realtime forecasting of rainfallinduced flood and landslide disasters from 2022 to 2023, and it was verified in longsequence and individual disaster cases during the flood period from June to August. The results show that the maximum parallel computing speedup ratio of the CRESLIDE model can reach up to 5.53. Flood disasters are primarily distributed across North and Southwest China, and landslide disasters are predominantly concentrated in South China, with a notable increase in frequency observed in North China during July and August. In longsequence validation, the area under ROC curve for evaluation of the forecast accuracy of the model is above or close to 0.7, and the forecast accuracy for flood disasters is higher than that for landslide disasters. In individual case validation, the location and time of disasters forecast by the model are consistent with the observed results.

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张春堂,张珂,陈国鼎,等.基于智能网格降水和水文滑坡耦合模型的全国洪水和滑坡灾害滚动预报[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):83-92.(ZHANG Chuntang, ZHANG Ke, CHEN Guoding, et al. Flood and landslide disaster rolling forecast in China based on intelligent-grid precipitation and coupled hydrological-landslide model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):83-92.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-22
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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