金沙江上游降雨融雪径流模拟与洪水风险评估
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(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;4.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,江苏 南京 210098;5.水利部水利大数据重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;6.水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏 南京 210012 )

作者简介:

罗煜宁(1999—),女,博士研究生,主要从事水文预报与模拟研究。E-mail:yuning_lynn@163.com 通信作者:张珂(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:kzhang@hhu.edu.cn

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国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500)


Simulation of rainfall-snowmelt runoff and flood risk assessment in upper reaches of the Jinsha River
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(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;4.China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Nanjing 210098, China;5.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, China;6.Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210012, China)

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    摘要:

    针对在寒区大尺度流域难以开展同位素示踪法水源解析、降雨-融雪径流模拟精度低、洪水遭遇风险难以量化等问题,构建了分布式水文模型iRainSnowHydro对金沙江上游石鼓流域进行水源分割和径流模拟。基于降雨、融雪水源解析结果,结合实测流量数据,运用Copula函数分别构建二维和三维联合分布,分别计算了雨、雪、洪组合事件的丰枯遭遇风险。结果表明:iRainSnowHydro模型对金沙江上游的日径流模拟效果较好,纳什效率系数达0.8以上;流域水源组成季节性差异显著,春季融雪径流占比高,且稳定在(27±6)%;在二维联合分布中,雨、洪的丰枯同步遭遇风险最大,为56.34%;在三维联合分布中,雨、雪、洪丰枯同步遭遇风险为15.39%,出现雨、雪、洪三碰头的极端天气事件概率为2.55%。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of determining water source composition using isotope tracing methods in large-scale alpine basins, as well as the low accuracy of rainfall-snowmelt runoff simulations and the difficulty in quantifying flood risk encounters, a distributed hydrological model, iRainSnowHydro, was established for water source partitioning and runoff simulation in the Shigu Basin of the upper reaches of the Jinsha River. Based on the division results of rainfall and snowmelt water, combined with observed flow data, the Copula function was used to construct two-dimensional and three-dimensional joint distributions to calculate the encounter risks of wet and dry for rain, snow, and flood combination events. The results indicate that the iRainSnowHydro model performs well in simulating daily runoff at the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, with Nash efficiency coefficients exceeding 0.8. There are significant seasonal differences in the water source proportion, with snowmelt water in spring accounting for a high and stable proportion of(27±6)%. In the twodimensional joint distribution, the risk of synchronous wetdry encounters between rainfall and streamflow is the highest at 56.34%. In the threedimensional joint distribution, the risk of synchronous wetdry encounters for rainsnowflood is 15.39%, and the probability of extreme weather events involving synchronous occurrences of rain, snow, and flood is 2.55%.

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罗煜宁,张珂,王宇昊,等.金沙江上游降雨融雪径流模拟与洪水风险评估[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):93-100.(LUO Yuning, ZHANG Ke, WANG Yuhao, et al. Simulation of rainfall-snowmelt runoff and flood risk assessment in upper reaches of the Jinsha River[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):93-100.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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