基于分级恢复阈值的长江流域骤发干旱识别
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(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;2.皖江工学院水利工程学院,安徽 马鞍山 243031;3.河海大学农业科学与工程学院,江苏 南京 211100 )

作者简介:

薛联青(1973—),女,教授,博士,主要从事生态水文与环境水文研究。E-mail:lqxue@hhu.edu.cn 通信作者:刘远洪(1991—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事生态水文研究。E-mail:lyh910926@163.com

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基金项目:

新疆生产建设兵团科技合作项目(2022BC001);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206804);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B250201179);江苏省水利科技项目(2024045)


Identification of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin based on graded recovery thresholds
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(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.School of Hydraulic Engineering, Wanjiang University of Technology, Maanshan 243031, China;3.College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

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    摘要:

    为探究恢复阈值设定对骤发干旱识别的影响以及骤发干旱时空特征,采用1979—2022年ERA5-Land土壤水分数据,设定第20、30和40百分位数的分级恢复阈值识别了长江流域骤发干旱事件。结果表明:长江流域骤发干旱频次以及强度较高区域均位于四川盆地西部及长江流域东南部区域,骤发干旱频次较低区域的骤发干旱事件平均持续时间更长;1979—2022年长江流域骤发干旱特征指标均呈现上升趋势,2022年骤发干旱持续时间及强度达到最大值;长江流域骤发干旱频次对恢复阈值最敏感,骤发干旱平均持续时间受恢复阈值影响表现出上游向中下游逐渐增大的特征,骤发干旱平均强度受恢复阈值影响程度最低;随恢复阈值升高,骤发干旱事件频次、平均持续时间上升,平均强度降低;低恢复阈值适用于识别短历时骤发干旱,高恢复阈值适用于识别季节尺度的骤发干旱。

    Abstract:

    To explore the impact of recovery threshold settings on flash drought identification and the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash droughts, using ERA5-Land soil moisture data from 1979 to 2022, the graded recovery thresholds were set at the 20th percentile, the 30th percentile, and the 40th percentile to identify flash drought events in the Yangtze River Basin. The results indicated that areas with a higher frequency and intensity of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin were located in the western part of the Sichuan Basin and the southeastern part of the Yangtze River Basin, while the average duration of flash drought events in areas with a lower frequency of flash droughts tended to be longer. The indicators of flash drought characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin showed an increasing trend from 1979 to 2022, with the duration and severity of flash droughts reaching their maximum values in 2022. The frequency of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin was most sensitive to the recovery threshold. The average duration of flash droughts was affected by the recovery threshold, gradually varying from the upper reaches to the middle and lower reaches, while the average intensity was the least affected. As the recovery threshold increased, the frequency and average duration of flash droughts increased, while the average intensity decreased. Lower recovery thresholds were more suitable for identifying short-duration flash droughts, whereas higher recovery thresholds were suitable for identifying flash droughts of seasonal scales.

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薛联青,张泽华,刘远洪.基于分级恢复阈值的长江流域骤发干旱识别[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):119-126.(XUE Lianqing, ZHANG Zehua, LIU Yuanhong. Identification of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin based on graded recovery thresholds[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):119-126.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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