不同气候区气象干旱向农业干旱动态传播规律及影响因素分析
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(1.华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南 郑州 450046;2.河南省水圈与流域水安全重点实验室,河南 郑州 450046;3.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

徐征光(1991—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:xuzhengguang20@163.com 通信作者:吴志勇(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zywu@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42401025);国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金重点项目(U2240225)


Analysis of dynamic propagation patterns and influencing factors from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in different climatic regions
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(1.School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China;2.Henan Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere and Watershed Water Security, Zhengzhou 450046, China;3.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为探究不同气候区气象干旱向农业干旱的动态传播规律及影响因素,以湘江流域、淮河王家坝以上流域和渭河华县以上流域为研究区,分别采用标准化降水指数和标准化土壤含水量指数表征气象干旱和农业干旱,采用10a的滑动窗口和相关分析法获得了干旱传播时间序列,利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析了干旱传播时间的变化趋势,借助极端梯度提升算法识别了影响传播时间时空变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:湘江流域的平均传播时间最短(6.4旬),渭河华县以上流域的平均传播时间最长(33.1旬),淮河王家坝以上流域传播时间显著变化的网格占比最高;土壤含水量与气温的耦合关系、年平均气温和土壤含水量记忆性分别是影响3个流域网格尺度上传播时间动态变化的最主要因素,平均相对重要性分别为0.20、0.21和0.21;湘江流域干旱传播时间的空间分布特征最易受环境变化影响,土壤含水量记忆性是影响3个流域传播时间空间变化的最主要因素。

    Abstract:

    To explore the dynamic patterns and influencing factors of the propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in different climatic regions, the Xiangjiang River Basin, the upper Huaihe River Basin above Wangjiaba Station, and the upper Weihe River Basin above Huaxian Station were selected as research areas, and the standardized precipitation index(SPI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI) were selected to characterize meteorological drought and agricultural drought, respectively. A 10a sliding window and correlation analysis method were employed to obtain drought propagation time series. The MannKendall trend test was used to analyze the variation trends in propagation time, and the extreme gradient boosting algorithm was utilized to identify the dominate influencing factors affecting the spatiotemporal variations in drought propagation time. The results indicate that the Xiangjiang River Basin has the shortest propagation time (6.4 tenday period), whereas the average propagation time in the upper Weihe River Basin above Huaxian Station is the longest (33.1 tenday period). The upper Huaihe River Basin above Wangjiaba Station has the highest proportion of grids with significant variations in drought propagation time. The coupling relationship between soil moisture and temperature, mean annual temperature, and soil moisture memory are identified as the top three influencing factors affecting dynamic changes in propagation time at the grid scale in the Xiangjiang River Basin, the upper Huaihe River Basin above Wangjiaba Station, and the upper Weihe River Basin above Huaxian Station, with average relative importance of 0.20, 0.21, and 0.21, respectively. The spatial distribution characteristics of drought propagation time in the Xiangjiang River Basin are more susceptible to changes in the environment. The soil moisture memory is the most important factor affecting the spatial variation in propagation time of the three basins.

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徐征光,丁海伦,吴志勇,等.不同气候区气象干旱向农业干旱动态传播规律及影响因素分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(3):144-152.(XU Zhengguang, DING Hailun, WU Zhiyong, et al. Analysis of dynamic propagation patterns and influencing factors from meteorological drought to agricultural drought in different climatic regions[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(3):144-152.(in Chinese))

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-18
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-12
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