气候变化和人类活动对长江流域极端径流的影响
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(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学地理与遥感学院,江苏 南京 211100 )

作者简介:

杨肖丽(1976—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:yangxl@hhu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203)


Impacts of climate change and human activities on extreme runoff in the Yangtze River Basin
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(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.College of Geography and Remote Sensing, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China)

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    摘要:

    采用PCR-GLOBWB模型模拟长江流域自然情景和人类活动情景下的月径流过程,使用Mann-Kendall突变检验划分基准期和影响期,并基于标准化径流指数和广义极值分布计算了不同重现期两种情景下的极端高流和极端低流变化范围,定量评估了长江流域气候变化和人类活动对极端径流演变的贡献程度。结果表明:气候变化是长江流域极端高流和极端低流变化的主要贡献因素;气候变化加剧了长江上游中部及中、下游地区的极端高流和极端低流发生的严重程度;人类活动对于极端高流和极端低流影响的区域差异性显著,缓解了丹江口水库和四川盆地极端高流的严重程度,但加重了中、下游的极端低流的严重程度。

    Abstract:

    The PCR-GLOBWB model was employed to simulate monthly runoff processes in the Yangtze River Basin under natural conditions and human-influenced scenarios. The Mann-Kendall mutation test was applied to delineate the baseline period and the impacted period. Based on standardized runoff index and generalized extreme value distribution, the range of extreme high flow and extreme low flow changes under two scenarios with different recurrence periods was calculated, and quantitatively evaluated the contribution of climate change and human activities to the evolution of extreme runoff in the Yangtze River Basin. The results indicate that climate change is the main contributing factor to the extreme high and low flow changes in the Yangtze River Basin. Climate change has intensified the severity of extreme high flow and l extreme low flow in the central part of the upper reaches and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The regional differences in the impact of human activities on extreme high flow and l extreme low flow are significant, alleviating the severity of extreme high currents in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and Sichuan Basin, but exacerbating the severity of extreme low flow in the middle and lower reaches.

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杨肖丽,张佳乐,黄星怡,等.气候变化和人类活动对长江流域极端径流的影响[J].水资源保护,2025,41(4):1-9.(YANG Xiaoli, ZHANG Jiale, HUANG Xingyi, et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on extreme runoff in the Yangtze River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(4):1-9.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-11
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