基于突变理论和因子分析的黑龙江水资源利用效率评价及驱动因素分析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150030;2.黑龙江省水文水资源中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001 )

作者简介:

姜秋香(1982—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水土资源高效利用与管理研究。E-mail:jiangqiuxiang2017@163.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42071243,52479006, 52409011)


Evaluation of water resources utilization efficiency and analysis of driving factors in Heilongjiang Province based on mutation theory and factor analysis
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, China;2.Hydrology and Water Resources Center of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin 150001, China)

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    摘要:

    构建了黑龙江水资源利用效率评价指标体系,根据突变理论和熵权法确定各指标的主次关系,对2000—2021年黑龙江水资源利用效率进行了综合评价;采用Mann-Kendall突变检验法确定黑龙江水资源利用效率的突变年份及变化趋势,并利用因子分析法识别了驱动因素。结果表明:2000—2021年黑龙江水资源利用效率评价值的平均值为0.883,在时间上呈波动式上升趋势;在空间上,鹤岗和七台河地区的水资源利用效率变化不大,其他地区的水资源利用效率呈上升的趋势;黑龙江水资源利用效率驱动因素为人口资源因素、用水效益因素和工业效益因素。

    Abstract:

    An evaluation index system for water resources utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang Province was constructed, and the primary and secondary relationships of each index were determined based on mutation theory and entropy weight method. The water resources utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021 was evaluated comprehensively. The Mann-Kendall mutation test method was used to determine the mutation year and trend of water resources utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang Province, and factor analysis method was used to identify the driving factors. The results show that the average evaluation value of water resources utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2021 is 0.883, which shows a fluctuating upward trend over time.In terms of space, the water resource utilization efficiency in Hegang and Qitaihe areas has not changed much, while the water resource utilization efficiency in other areas is showing an upward trend. The driving factors of water resource utilization efficiency in Heilongjiang are population resource factors, water use efficiency factors, and industrial efficiency factors.

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姜秋香,孙宇祥,王子龙,等.基于突变理论和因子分析的黑龙江水资源利用效率评价及驱动因素分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(4):19-26.(JIANG Qiuxiang, SUN Yuxiang, WANG Zilong, et al. Evaluation of water resources utilization efficiency and analysis of driving factors in Heilongjiang Province based on mutation theory and factor analysis[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(4):19-26.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-11
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