黄河下游流域行洪输沙社会经济生态环境系统耦合协调分析
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(1.河海大学环境学院,江苏 南京 210098;2.黄河水利科学研究院,河南 郑州 450003;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

顾艳林(2000—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事流域系统可持续发展研究。E-mail:yanlin_2000@163.com

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国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U2243601)


Coupling coordination analysis of flood and sediment transport-social economy-ecological environment system in the lower Yellow River Basin
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(1.College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003,China; 3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    综合考虑黄河下游流域行洪输沙、社会经济、生态环境3个子系统对流域发展的影响,采用组合权重法确定指标权重,构建了行洪输沙社会经济生态环境系统耦合协调度模型,对黄河下游流域耦合协调变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:2000—2020年黄河下游流域3个系统的综合发展指数差异明显,社会经济子系统的综合发展指数从0.079增至0.239,呈指数型稳步上升,生态环境和行洪输沙子系统发展较不均衡;子系统间的相互作用明显,但耦合协调度发展水平较低,经历了从中度失调到濒临失调的转变,未来有较大的提升空间;高水平耦合关系下,行洪输沙、生态环境子系统的不均衡发展是制约耦合协调度提升的主要原因,其中行洪输沙子系统中的河道稳定指数和平滩流量是主要因素,其次为生态环境子系统中的生境质量指数和生活污水排放量。

    Abstract:

    Taking into account the impact of the three subsystems of flood and sediment transport, social economy, and ecological environment on the development of the lower Yellow River Basin, the combination weight method was used to determine the indicator weights, and a coupling coordination degree model of flood and sediment transport-social economy-ecological environment system was constructed to analyze the trend of coupling coordination changes in the lower Yellow River Basin. The results showed that there were significant differences in the comprehensive development index of the three subsystems in the lower Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020. The comprehensive development index of the social economy subsystem increased steadily from 0.079 to 0.239, showing an exponential increase. The development of the ecological environment and the flood and sediment transport system was relatively uneven. The interaction between subsystems is obvious, but the development level of coupling coordination is relatively low, experiencing a transition from moderate imbalance to near imbalance, and there is great room for improvement in the future. Under the high-level coupling relationship, the uneven development of the flood and sediment transportation and ecological environment subsystems is the main reason restricting the improvement of coupling coordination. Among them, the river stability index and flat beach flow in the flood and sediment transportation system are the main factors, followed by the habitat quality index and domestic sewage discharge in the ecological environment subsystem.

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顾艳林,刘畅,陈开雯,等.黄河下游流域行洪输沙社会经济生态环境系统耦合协调分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(4):87-93.(GU Yanlin, LIU Chang, CHEN Kaiwen, et al. Coupling coordination analysis of flood and sediment transport-social economy-ecological environment system in the lower Yellow River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(4):87-93.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-11
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