In order to scientifically understand the evolution pattern of water resources in the Yellow River Basin and explore the structural evolution process of runoff components in the water resources conservation area at the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains under future climate scenarios, the control basin of the Heiyukou hydrological station at the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains was taken as the research object. Based on CMIP6 global climate model data, the SWAT model and DWT-LSTM coupled model were used to simulate the structural evolution process of runoff components under different climate scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The results indicate that, in both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the water resources conservation area at the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains will show a trend of warming and humidification in the future. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, a significant decrease in future baseflow leads to a decreasing trend in total runoff, and the attenuation rates of baseflow, surface runoff, and total runoff are 19%, 15.4%, and 17%, respectively, compared to the historical period. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the future regional baseflow, surface runoff, and total runoff all show an upward trend, with increase rates of 2.6%, 11.2%, and 7.5%, respectively, compared to the historical period. In both scenarios, the average future baseflow index will be lower than the historical period, indicating a decrease in water conservation capacity.