基于Budyko理论的渭河上游生态建设区径流驱动因素量化分析
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(1.兰州理工大学能源与动力工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730050;2.大连理工大学建设工程学院,辽宁 大连 116024;3.旱区水工程生态环境全国重点实验室,陕西 西安 710048 )

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柯浩成(1986—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:kehc@lut.edu.cn

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基金项目:

甘肃省科技计划资助项目(25JRRA096);国家自然科学基金项目(4210070887);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(22YF7FA165,23YF7FA165);高端外国专家引进计划项目(22JR10KA006)


Quantitative analysis of runoff driving factors in ecological construction areas of upper reaches of the Wei River based on Budyko theory
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(1.College of Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China;2.School of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China;3.State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulic in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an 710048, China)

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    摘要:

    基于渭河上游5个水文站和10个气象站的实测数据,分析了黄土高原典型生态建设区渭河上游的水文序列非一致性和突变方法的适宜性;采用6种突变检验方法、交叉小波分析和Budyko理论等方法,探究了渭河上游1980—2018年年径流量演变规律及其影响因素。结果表明:渭河上游年径流量呈不显著下降趋势(p>0.05),降水序列呈不显著上升趋势(p>0.05),潜在蒸散发和温度序列呈显著上升趋势(p<0.05),其中,径流序列和潜在蒸散发序列于1993年发生突变,降水序列于2012年发生突变,降水较径流突变点存在10a滞后性;渭河上游各水文站长序列径流变化最适宜的突变检验方法为滑动T检验法;量化解析了下垫面、年降水量和潜在蒸散发量对渭河上游径流的贡献率,分别为64.60%、37.87%、-2.47%;渭河上游径流的驱动因素是气候和人类活动的综合影响,下垫面变化是渭河上游径流变化的主导因素,其次是年降水量和潜在蒸散发。

    Abstract:

    Based on the measured data from 5 hydrological stations and 10 meteorological stations in the upper reaches of the Wei River, this study analyzed the nonstationarity of hydrological series and the suitability of changepoint detection methods in the typical ecological construction areas of the Loess Plateau within the upper reaches of theWei River. Using 6 changepoint detection methods, crosswavelet analysis, Budyko theory, and other approaches, it explored the evolutionary patterns of annual runoff and its influencing factors in the upper reaches of the Wei River from 1980 to 2018.The results show that the annual runoff in the upper reaches of the Wei River presented an insignificant decreasing trend (p>0.05), the precipitation series showed an insignificant increasing trend (p>0.05), while the potential evapotranspiration and temperature series exhibited significant increasing trends (p<0.05). Among them, the runoff series and potential evapotranspiration series experienced a change point in 1993, and the precipitation series had a change point in 2012, with 10a lag between the change point of precipitation and that of runoff. The most suitable changepoint detection method for longseries runoff changes at hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Wei River is the moving Ttest method. The contribution rates of the underlying surface, annual precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration to the runoff in the upper reaches of the Wei River were quantitatively analyzed, which were 64.60%, 37.87%, and -2.47%, respectively.The driving factors of runoff in the upper reaches of the Wei River are the comprehensive impact of climate and human activities. Changes in the underlying surface are the dominant factor affecting runoff changes in the upper reaches of the Wei River, followed by annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.

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柯浩成,马晓燕,马利国,等.基于Budyko理论的渭河上游生态建设区径流驱动因素量化分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(4):210-218, 227.(KE Haocheng, MA Xiaoyan, MA Liguo, et al. Quantitative analysis of runoff driving factors in ecological construction areas of upper reaches of the Wei River based on Budyko theory[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(4):210-218, 227.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-08-11
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