城市暴雨洪涝灾害链风险评估方法
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(1.珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东 广州 510611;2.水利部粤港澳大湾区水安全保障重点实验室,广东 广州 510611 )

作者简介:

杨芳(1978—)女,正高级工程师,硕士,主要从事水旱灾害防御、河口治理与保护研究。E-mail:yangf21@tsinghua.org.cn

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北京江河水利发展基金会项目(JHYC202205)


Risk assessment methodology for rainstorm-induced urban flood disaster chain
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(1.Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510611, China;2.Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Guangzhou 510611, China)

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    摘要:

    针对当前城市洪涝风险评估中对城市洪涝的级联效应关注不足的问题,提出了一种面向城镇重要基础设施的城市暴雨洪涝灾害链风险评估方法。该方法耦合了洪涝模拟模型与系统动力学模型,利用洪涝模拟模型提供的洪水淹没时空信息驱动系统动力学模型动态评估洪涝灾害链风险。以广州市南岗河流域2020年“5·22”暴雨洪涝事件为实例进行了灾害链风险评估,结果表明:不同承灾体的暴露度与危险性呈现差异化演变特征,水利工程设施、主要化工厂、医院和地下空间等承灾体的暴露度相对较高,暴露度峰值达0.65以上,而桥隧等承灾体虽然暴露度不高,但其受淹部分的危险性较高,高达5.63;城市洪涝综合风险对降水呈现非线性响应关系,22日凌晨强降水过程中,累计降水量增加了138%,而综合洪涝风险指数增长了816%,远高于承灾体暴露度的增幅215%。该评估方法增强了对城市洪涝灾害链风险的认知,可为城市关键基础设施的防洪减灾策略制定与应急响应提供有效的决策支持。

    Abstract:

    To address the insufficient attention to cascading effects in current urban flood risk assessments, a risk assessment method for urban flood disaster chains with critical municipal infrastructure as the main disaster-bearing bodies is proposed. This method couples a flood simulation model with a system dynamics model, where the flood simulation model provides spatial and temporal inundation data to drive the system dynamics model for dynamic risk evaluation. A case study was conducted on the May 22 flood event in 2020 within the Nangang River Watershed of Guangzhou City. The results show that the exposure and hazard levels of different disaster-bearing bodies evolve differently. Water conservancy infrastructure, major chemical plants, hospitals and underground spaces showed high exposure, with peak values exceeding 0.65. Although bridges and tunnels showed lower exposure, the hazard level of their inundated parts can reach 5.63. A non-linear relationship was found between the comprehensive urban flood risk and precipitation. During the heavy rainfall on the early morning of May 22, the cumulative precipitation increased by 138%, while the comprehensive flood risk index increased by 816%, far exceeding the 215% increase in the exposure of disaster-bearing bodies. This method enhances the understanding of disaster chain risk and provides decision-making support for the formulation of flood alleviation strategies and emergency actions for critical urban infrastructure.

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杨芳,李旭东,宋利祥,等.城市暴雨洪涝灾害链风险评估方法[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):52-60.(YANG Fang, LI Xudong, SONG Lixiang, et al. Risk assessment methodology for rainstorm-induced urban flood disaster chain[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):52-60.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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