基于改进模糊集分析法和Copula函数的水库分期设计洪水推求
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(1.华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京 102206;2.华北电力大学苏州研究院,江苏 苏州 215000 )

作者简介:

李继清(1972—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:jqli6688@ncepu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金项目(U2243224,52579009);水灾害防御全国重点实验室开放基金(2024nkzd01);国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3002702)


Staged design flood calculation for reservoir using improved fuzzy set analysis method and Copula function
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(1.School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;2.Suzhou Institute of North China Electric Power University, Suzhou 215000, China)

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    摘要:

    通过耦合Critic权重法、局部比较法和模糊集分析法,提出了一种水库汛期分期的改进模糊集分析法。该方法通过Critic权重法将多个指标转化为综合指标,再利用局部比较法分析步长内综合指标的波动程度,以此客观确定汛期分期节点,然后将改进模糊集分析法的分期结果与其他分期方法结果进行比较优选,确定最佳汛期分期方案;在此基础上,采用P-Ⅲ分布、两参数Gamma分布、对数正态分布和广义极值分布4种线型,对设计要素进行边缘分布拟合并确定最优分布线型,并通过Frank Copula函数构建不同分期间洪峰流量、洪量的联合分布,推求分期设计频率,确定分期设计洪水的设计要素设计值和分期设计洪水过程线。将本文提出的方法应用于龙羊峡水库汛期分期和分期设计洪水推求,确定的龙羊峡水库汛期分期方案为:6月上旬至6月下旬为前汛期,7月上旬至8月下旬为主汛期,9月上旬至10月下旬为后汛期;推求的龙羊峡水库各分期设计洪水过程线显示,主汛期多为尖瘦型洪水,前汛期与后汛期多为矮胖型洪水,且主汛期的洪峰流量与洪量大于前、后汛期;汛期分期合理性检验表明,改进模糊集分析法较传统汛期分期方法确定的水库汛期分期节点更加合理。

    Abstract:

    By coupling the Critic weight method, local comparison method and fuzzy set analysis method, an improved fuzzy set analysis method for reservoir flood season staging is proposed. This method converts multiple indicators into a comprehensive index using the Critic weight method, and then use the local comparison method to analyze the fluctuation degree of the comprehensive index within the step size to objectively determine the flood season staging nodes. Subsequently, the staging results of the improved fuzzy set analysis method are compared with the results of other staging methods to determine the optimal flood season staging scheme. On this basis, the P-Ⅲ distribution, two-parameter Gamma distribution, log-normal distribution and generalized extreme value distribution are used to fit the marginal distribution of design elements and determine the optimal distribution line. The joint distributions of flood peaks and flood volumes in different periods are constructed by the Frank Copula function, the design frequency for each period is deduced, and the design values of the design elements and the design flood hydrograph for each period are determined. The proposed method is applied to the flood season staging and staged design flood calculation for the Longyangxia Reservoir. The flood season staging scheme of the Longyangxia Reservoir is determined as follows:the early flood season is from early June to late June, the main flood season is from early July to late August, and the late flood season is from early September to late October. The calculated design flood hydrograph of each stage at the Longyangxia Reservoir shows that the main flood season is characterized by mostly sharp and thin flood hydrographs, and the early and late flood seasons are characterized by mostly short and fat hydrographs. The flood peak and volume in the main flood season are greater than those in the early and late flood seasons. The rationality test of flood season staging shows that the flood season staging nodes determined by the improved fuzzy set analysis method are more reasonable than those determined by the traditional methods.

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李继清,陈景,谢宇韬,等.基于改进模糊集分析法和Copula函数的水库分期设计洪水推求[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):61-72.(LI Jiqing, CHEN Jing, XIE Yutao, et al. Staged design flood calculation for reservoir using improved fuzzy set analysis method and Copula function[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):61-72.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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