洪涝灾害人口生命损失风险动态评估
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(河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210098 )

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高玉琴(1978—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水资源规划与洪灾风险控制研究。E-mail:yqgao@hhu.edu.cn

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国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006501-01)


Dynamic assessment of population life loss risk due to flood disasters
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(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为研究暴雨洪涝灾害中人口动态变化对生命损失风险的影响,从动态角度对洪涝灾害情景下人口生命损失风险开展了精准评估,通过界定人口生命损失风险概念及其特征,分析了其在洪涝灾害情景下的影响因素,搭建了洪涝灾害人口生命损失风险评估框架,利用多智能体建模与仿真技术及MIKE一、二维耦合模型构建了人口生命损失风险评估模型。以南京市主城区为例进行了模拟分析,结果表明:暴雨重现期越长,人口生命损失风险越高;降雨过程中室外暴露人数先增多、后减少,人口生命损失风险先增大、后缓慢减小;评估模型可动态计算洪涝灾害情景下人口生命损失风险,直观呈现不同洪涝灾害情景下人口的分布变化及人口生命损失风险的演进过程。

    Abstract:

    To study the impact of population dynamic changes on the life loss risk in rainstorm and flood disasters, a precise assessment of the population life loss risk in flood disasters was conducted from a dynamic perspective. By defining the concept and characteristics of population life loss risk and analyzing its influencing factors in flood disaster scenarios, a framework for assessing the population life loss risk in rainstorm and flood disasters was established. A dynamic assessment model of population life loss risk was constructed using multi-agent modeling, simulation technology, and one- and two- dimensional coupled MIKE model, and applied to the main urban area of Nanjing City. The results show that a longer rainstorm return period leads to a higher population life loss risk, the number of people exposed outdoors increases first and then decreases during the rainfall process, and the population life loss risk increases first and then decreases slowly. The assessment model can dynamically calculate the population life loss risk due to flood disasters and illustrate the changes in population distribution and evolution process of the population life loss risk under different flood disaster scenarios. Keywords: flood disaster; population life loss risk; multi-agent modeling; one- and two-dimensional coupled MIKE model; Nanjing

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高玉琴,王辰,谢梦瑶,等.洪涝灾害人口生命损失风险动态评估[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):79-88.(GAO Yuqin, WANG Chen, XIE Mengyao, et al. Dynamic assessment of population life loss risk due to flood disasters[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):79-88.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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