海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水东淀蓄滞洪区洪水演进复盘分析
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作者单位:

(1.中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾研究中心,北京 100038;2.水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038;3.首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048;4.天津市水务工程运行调度中心,天津 300074 )

作者简介:

吴滨滨(1987—),女,高级工程师,博士,主要从事流域洪水演进与风险分析研究。E-mail:wubb@iwhr.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012302);天津市防洪调度应急指挥平台建设项目(JZ120205A0042024)


Retrospective analysis of flood propagation in Dongdian flood storage-detention area during “23·7”catastrophic flood in the Haihe River Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 2.Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China; 3.College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Captial Normal University, Beijing 100048, China; 4.Tianjin Water Engineering Operation and Dispatch Center, Tianjin 300074, China)

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    摘要:

    针对极端降水引起的洪涝灾害频率和强度改变,进而导致蓄滞洪区启用概率与风险增大的问题,构建了东淀蓄滞洪区一、二维耦合水动力学模型,利用遥感及水文测站监测数据和洪痕调查数据对模型进行了率定,并全面复盘了海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水过程中东淀蓄滞洪区洪水演进过程和淹没特征。结果表明:模拟淹没范围与遥感监测成果吻合良好,模拟结果中各水文、水位站最大水位误差均小于20cm,洪峰流量误差均小于5%,峰现时间误差均在2h之内;洪痕淹没水深误差均小于30cm,其中86%的点位误差小于20cm,模型模拟效果较好;新盖房分洪洪峰在分洪道、东淀蓄滞洪区中传播时间分别为11h和7.3d,洪峰衰减分别为12%和40%;淀区内洪水演进缓慢,淹没水深大,淹没历时长,约65%的区域流速小于0.2m/s,淹没水深大于2m,且淹没历时超过30d,其中包括38%的村庄、67%的耕地和96%的温室大棚。

    Abstract:

    In response to the changes in the frequency and intensity of flood disasters caused by extreme precipitation, which in turn lead to an increase in the probability and risk of the activation of flood storagedetention areas (FSDAs), a one and twodimensional coupled hydrodynamic model for Dongdian FSDA was developed. The model was calibrated using remote sensing and hydrological station monitoring data as well as fieldbased flood mark surveys. A comprehensive retrospective analysis was conducted of the flood propagation process and inundation characteristics in Dongdian FSDA during the “23·7” catastrophic flood in the Haihe River Basin. The results show that the simulated inundation range is in good agreement with the remote sensing monitoring results. The maximum water level errors at each hydrological and water level station were less than 20 cm, the peak discharge deviations remained below 5%, and the peak arrival time discrepancies were within 2 h. The error of the inundation depth of the flood mark was less than 30 cm, and 86% of the points had an error of less than 20 cm, demonstrating good effect of simulation. The Xingaifang flood peak traversed the flood diversion channel and Dongdian FSDA in 11 h and 7.3 d, respectively, and the peak attenuation was 12% and 40%, respectively. The flood propagation in the FSDA was slow, with a large inundation depth and a long inundation duration. About 65% of the area had a flow velocity of less than 0.2 m/s, an inundation depth of greater than 2 m, and an inundation duration exceeding 30 d, which included 38% of villages, 67% of farmland, and 96% of the greenhouse structures.

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吴滨滨,马奉泉,胡珊珊,等.海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水东淀蓄滞洪区洪水演进复盘分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):96-105.(WU Binbin, MA Fengquan, HU Shanshan, et al. Retrospective analysis of flood propagation in Dongdian flood storage-detention area during “23·7”catastrophic flood in the Haihe River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):96-105.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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