高温约束下长江流域骤旱条件概率分析
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(1.南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏 南京 210044;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

朱烨(1987—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:zhuye396@163.com

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国家自然科学基金项目(42171021)


Conditional probability analysis of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin under high temperatures
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(1.School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    基于地面气象站点观测和陆面再分析资料识别长江流域1950—2021年骤旱和高温事件,分析了两种极端事件的时空分布特征,结合Copula函数构建了高温与骤旱联合概率分布及条件概率分布函数,推求了不同气温条件下土壤含水量分位数达到中旱、重旱、极旱和特旱的初始历时。结果表明:1990年后骤旱频次与高温天数呈显著上升趋势,干旱初始历时与日最高气温呈显著负相关关系,气温越高,干旱初始历时越短,骤旱越容易发生;2006年、2011年、2013年典型极端气候事件中云南、四川、重庆、贵州、湖北等流域中上游地区高温与骤旱联合概率较下游地区高;在低温条件下,长江流域源头区域干旱初始历时较中下游地区约长1倍,随着气温升高,流域源头和上游地区干旱初始历时缩短,当日最高气温超过30℃时,干旱初始历时的空间分布由上游长、下游短的格局转变为上游短、下游长的格局。

    Abstract:

    Based on ground meteorological observations and land surface reanalysis data, flash drought and high temperature events in the Yangtze River Basin from 1950 to 2021 were identified, and the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of these two extreme events were analyzed. Combined with the Copula function, the joint probability distribution and conditional probability distribution functions of high temperature and flash drought were constructed, and the onset time periods when the soil moisture content percentile reached moderate, severe, extreme, and excessively extreme droughts under different temperature conditions were estimated. The results show that the times of occurrence of flash droughts and days of high temperature have significantly increased since 1990. The onset time period of droughts is significantly negatively correlated with daily maximum temperature, and shortens as the temperature increases, indicating the higher likelihood of flash drought occurrence at higher temperatures. The joint probability of high temperature and flash drought in the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, including Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guizhou, and Hubei, is higher than that in the downstream areas in typical events in 2006,2011, and 2013.Under low temperature conditions, the onset time period of droughts in the source region of the Yangtze River Basin is twofold of that in the middle and lower reaches. With the rising temperatures, the onset time period of droughts in the source region and the upper reaches shortens. When the daily maximum temperature exceeds 30℃, the development of droughts shows a spatial pattern of rapid onset in the upstream and delayed onset in the downstream.

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朱烨,胥冰威,刘懿,等.高温约束下长江流域骤旱条件概率分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):115-122.(ZHU Ye, XU Bingwei, LIU Yi, et al. Conditional probability analysis of flash droughts in the Yangtze River Basin under high temperatures[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):115-122.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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