基于网格聚合理论和Copula函数的流域极端降水三维识别及时空动态演变研究
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(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;2.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;4.水利部水循环与水动力系统重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

任立良(1963—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:njrll9999@126.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3209800);国家自然科学基金项目(U2243203,52279011)


Three-dimensional identification and spatiotemporal dynamic evolution study of extreme precipitation in river basins based on grid aggregation theory and Copula function
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(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;4.Key Laboratory of Hydrologic-Cycle and Hydrodynamic-System of Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    为更好地应对流域极端降水灾害,本文提出了一种基于网格聚合理论的降水事件三维识别方法,通过识别、聚类、分割的动态识别步骤捕捉降水事件及其三维特征,采用Copula函数耦合降水历时、强度和总量,形成新的极端降水指标COP,并以黄河流域为例进行了极端降水时空动态演变分析。结果表明:本文提出的降水事件三维识别方法能够较好地捕捉降水的演变过程,与传统极端降水指标P95相比,本文提出的极端降水指标可以更准确地捕捉黄河流域极端降水的时空迁移轨迹,并考虑极端降水发展过程中弱降水事件的累积贡献,更完整地描述极端降水事件的时空演变机制。

    Abstract:

    To better cope with extreme precipitation disasters in river basins, a three-dimensional precipitation event identification method was proposed based on the grid aggregation theory. The method involved identification, clustering, and segmentation steps to capture precipitation events and their three-dimensional characteristics. On this basis, a Copula function was used to couple the duration, intensity, and total amount of precipitation, forming a new extreme precipitation index COP. A case analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamic evolution of extreme precipitation was conducted in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that the three-dimensional precipitation event identification method proposed in this paper can effectively capture the evolution process of precipitation events.Compared with the traditional P95 extreme precipitation index, the proposed extreme precipitation index can more accurately capture the spatiotemporal migration patterns of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River Basin and account for the cumulative contribution of weak precipitation events during the development of extreme precipitation, providing a more comprehensive description of the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of extreme precipitation events.

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任立良,万仪欣,袁山水,等.基于网格聚合理论和Copula函数的流域极端降水三维识别及时空动态演变研究[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):151-159.(REN Liliang, WAN Yixin, YUAN Shanshui, et al. Three-dimensional identification and spatiotemporal dynamic evolution study of extreme precipitation in river basins based on grid aggregation theory and Copula function[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):151-159.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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