基于改进累积前景理论的黄河梯级水库水沙生态经济多目标调度决策模型
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(1.黄河水利委员会黄河水利科学研究院,河南 郑州 450003;2.黄河实验室,河南 郑州 450003;3.水利部黄河下游河道与河口治理重点实验室,河南 郑州 450003;4.黄河水利委员会水文局,河南 郑州 450004;5.郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001 )

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国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200400);国家自然科学基金项目(U2243601,52409090);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项经费项目 (HKY-JBYW-2024-01);黄河水利科学研究院科技发展基金项目(黄科发202401)


A multi-objective scheduling decision-making model based on modified cumulative prospect theory for water-sediment, eco-environment, and socio-economy of cascade reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin
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(1.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, YRCC, Zhengzhou 450003, China;2.Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou 450003, China;3.Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China;4.Hydrology Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou 450004, China;5.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

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    摘要:

    考虑黄河流域行洪输沙、生态环境、社会经济多维调度需求,构建了梯级水库水沙生态经济多目标优化调度模型,并基于改进的累积前景理论构建了决策模型用于优选调度方案。以黄河干流龙羊峡、刘家峡、海勃湾、万家寨、三门峡、小浪底梯级水库联合调度为例,开展了丰、平、枯典型年的调度决策模型构建与验证计算。结果表明:排沙与生态目标表现为一定的竞争性,排沙与发电目标表现为较强的竞争性,生态与发电目标表现为一定的协同性,且在枯水年三目标间的竞争协同关系明显;较于真实调度方案,丰、平、枯水年决策方案的三目标值均有不同程度的提升;较于常用决策方法,基于MCPT的决策方法灵敏性提高数倍,适用于大量方案优选决策的情况。

    Abstract:

    Considering the multidimensional scheduling needs of flooding and sand transport, ecological environment and social economy in the Yellow River Basin, a multiobjective optimal scheduling model of watersediment, ecoenvironment, and socioeconomy is constructed for cascade reservoirs. The decisionmaking model is constructed based on modified cumulative prospect theory (MCPT) to optimize the scheduling scheme. Take Longyangxia, Liujiaxia, Haibowan, Wanjiazhai, Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi cascade reservoirs as an example to construct and calculate scheduling decisionmaking models in wet, normal, and dry years. The results show that the sediment discharge and ecological objectives are somewhat competitive, the sediment discharge and power generation objectives are strongly competitive, while the ecological and power generation objectives are somewhat cooperative. The competivecooperative relationship among the three objectives is obvious in the dry year. Compared with the real scheduling scheme, the three target values for wet, normal, and dry years are all improved to different degrees. Compared with the commonly used decisionmaking methods, the sensitivity of the MCPTbased decisionmaking method is improved by several times, which is applicable to the situation where a large number of schemes need to be optimized for decisionmaking.

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李东林,李睿,刘刚,等.基于改进累积前景理论的黄河梯级水库水沙生态经济多目标调度决策模型[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):173-179, 230.(LI Donglin, LI Rui, LIU Gang, et al. A multi-objective scheduling decision-making model based on modified cumulative prospect theory for water-sediment, eco-environment, and socio-economy of cascade reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):173-179, 230.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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