融合再分析数据与观测降水的金沙江上游径流模拟
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(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;2.中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北 宜昌 443000 )

作者简介:

吴志勇(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文物理规律及水文预报研究。E-mail:zywu@hhu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U2240225);长江电力股份有限公司科技项目(Z242302050);水灾害防御全国重点实验室自主研究项目(524015512)


Runoff simulation in upper reaches of the Jinsha River based on fusion of reanalysis data and observed precipitation
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(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd., Yichang 443000, China)

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    摘要:

    针对金沙江上游观测站点稀疏以及高寒山区复杂水文过程导致的径流模拟难题,提出一种融合ERA5-Land再分析数据与观测降水的VIC模型模拟方案。基于模拟结果,对比分析了遥感监测与模型输出的积雪覆盖率,并讨论了流域融雪径流变化特征以及气温对融雪径流的影响。结果表明:仅采用观测降水构建的VIC模型较难模拟流域真实的径流过程,而采用融合数据可将时段径流模拟的确定性系数在率定期和验证期分别提高至0.80和0.74,相对误差降低至20%以内;模型输出的积雪覆盖率与遥感监测呈现良好的一致性,流域融雪径流年际变化稳定,年内差异较大,呈现双峰特征,春季融雪径流与气温有较大的相关性。

    Abstract:

    To address the challenges of runoff simulation caused by the sparse observation stations in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River and the complex hydrological processes in the alpine mountainous areas, a VIC model simulation scheme based on fusion of ERA5-Land reanalysis data and observed precipitation was proposed. Based on the simulation results, the snow coverage rate of remote sensing monitoring and model output was compared and analyzed, and the variation characteristics of snowmelt runoff in the basin and the influence of temperature on snowmelt runoff were discussed. The results show that the VIC model constructed only by observed precipitation is difficult to simulate the real runoff process of the basin, while the certainty coefficient of hourly runoff simulation is increased to 0.80 and 0.74 respectively in the calibration period and validation period by using the fusion data, and the relative error is significantly reduced to less than 20 %. The output snow coverage rate of the model is in good agreement with remote sensing monitoring. The interannual variation of snowmelt runoff in the basin is stable, and the difference between the years is large, showing bimodal characteristics. There is a large correlation between snowmelt runoff and temperature in spring.

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吴志勇,张子昀,刘杨合,等.融合再分析数据与观测降水的金沙江上游径流模拟[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):205-212, 222.(WU Zhiyong, ZHANG Ziyun, LIU Yanghe, et al. Runoff simulation in upper reaches of the Jinsha River based on fusion of reanalysis data and observed precipitation[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):205-212, 222.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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