黄淮海和江淮平原小时极端降水时空演变及归因分析
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(1.河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏 南京 210098;2.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,江苏 南京 210098;3.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东 广州 510006;4.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098;5.长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏 南京 210098;6.水利部水利大数据重点实验室,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

李新(1987—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:xinli@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家“十四五”重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240203007)


Spatiotemporal evolution and attribution analysis of hourly extreme precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Jiang-Huai Plain
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(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;2.China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;3.School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China;4.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;5.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University Nanjing 210098, China;6.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    基于1983—2018年183个国家级地面气象观测站的小时降水数据,采用迭代式Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Spearman秩次相关分析、小波分析等方法,从降水事件和日内尺度极端降水指数两个维度,分析了黄淮海平原和江淮平原极端降水的时空演变趋势及其与大气环流模式的关系。结果表明:黄淮海平原和江淮平原夏季降水事件呈历时短、频率高和强度大等特点,降水特征空间分布有一定的区域性差异;除中等强度降水小时数外,半数以上站点极端降水频率、强度和持续性指数呈增加趋势;相较于1983—1999年,21世纪前20年极端降水频率、强度和持续时间呈显著增大趋势,但平均降水强度增大不显著;与黄淮海平原和江淮平原极端降水指数相关性最强的大气环流指数是大西洋多年代际振荡,其对强度指数和频率指数呈现以6~10月为主的间歇性共同显著周期带。

    Abstract:

    Based on hourly precipitation data from 183 national meteorological stations from 1983 to 2018, this study employs methods such as the iterative Mann-Kendall trend test, Spearman’s rank correlation analysis, and wavelet analysis to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme precipitation and its relationship with atmospheric circulation patterns in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Jiang-Huai Plain. The analysis focuses on two dimensions:precipitation events and subdaily extreme precipitation indices. The results show that summer precipitation events in these regions are characterized by short durations, high frequencies, and intense rainfall, with spatial variations in precipitation patterns. Except for moderate-intensity precipitation hours, more than half of the stations exhibit an increasing trend in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation. Compared to the period from 1983 to 1999, the first two decades of 21 century saw a significant rise in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme precipitation, although the increase in average precipitation intensity was not significant. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation shows the strongest teleconnection with extreme precipitation index in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Jiang-Huai Plain, with dominant 6-10 month coherent spectral bands for both intensity and frequency indices.

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李新,陈馨蕾,周义斌,等.黄淮海和江淮平原小时极端降水时空演变及归因分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(5):285-295, 328.(LI Xin, CHEN Xinlei, ZHOU Yibin, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and attribution analysis of hourly extreme precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Jiang-Huai Plain[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(5):285-295, 328.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-09-21
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