高度城市化区域洪涝孕灾环境敏感性时空演变分析
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(河海大学水利水电学院,江苏 南京 210098 )

作者简介:

高玉琴(1978—),女,教授,博士,主要从事水利规划与水利经济研究。 E-mail:yqgao@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006501-01)


Spatial and temporal evolution analysis of sensitivity of flood disaster-prone environment in highly urbanized areas
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(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

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    摘要:

    针对高度城市化区域洪涝孕灾环境研究不足的问题,基于模糊逻辑方法,构建了洪涝孕灾环境敏感性评估模型,利用Fuzzy Gamma与Fuzzy Sum算子进行非线性分级叠加,从而评估洪涝孕灾环境的敏感性,结合趋势分析、核密度估计、莫兰指数方法分析其时空演变特征,并应用于秦淮河流域。结果表明:秦淮河流域整体敏感性水平呈上升趋势,子流域之间敏感性差异显著,2020年78%的易积淹水点分布在敏感性大于0.5的高敏区域,模型评估结果与实测风险分布高度吻合;提出的方法能较好地评估高度城市化区域洪涝孕灾环境敏感性并反映其时空演变特征。

    Abstract:

    In response to the problem of insufficient research on flood disaster-prone environment in highly urbanized area, a sensitivity assessment model for flood disaster-prone environment was constructed based on fuzzy logic methods. Using Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy Sum operators for nonlinear hierarchical superposition, the sensitivity of flood disaster-prone environment was evaluated by the model. Trend analysis, kernel density estimation, and Moran’s index methods were combined to analyze their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and a case study was conducted in the Qinhuai River Basin. The results indicate that the overall sensitivity level of the Qinhuai River Basin showed an increasing trend, with significant differences among sub-basins. In 2020,78% of flood-prone points were distributed in highly sensitive areas with sensitivity greater than 0.5, demonstrating high consistency between model assessments and measured risk distribution. The proposed method effectively assesses the sensitivity of flood disaster-prone environment in highly urbanized areas and reflects its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics.

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高玉琴,曹祥,季孔阳,等.高度城市化区域洪涝孕灾环境敏感性时空演变分析[J].水资源保护,2025,41(6):18-27.(GAO Yuqin, CAO Xiang, JI Kongyang, et al. Spatial and temporal evolution analysis of sensitivity of flood disaster-prone environment in highly urbanized areas[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(6):18-27.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-05
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