水库群调度影响下黄河流域水沙生态经济协调发展及制约因子研究
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(1.南京水利科学研究院河流海岸研究所,江苏 南京 210029;2.南京水利科学研究院港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室,江苏 南京 210029 )

作者简介:

郑景琦(1995—),男,博士研究生,主要从事流域水沙生态经济多维互馈耦合机制研究。E-mail:782673518@qq.com 通信作者:邓涯(1991—),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事流域水沙生态经济多维互馈耦合机制研究。E-mail:ydeng@nhri.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200401);水利青年人才发展项目(Qs222014);南京水利科学研究院研究生学位论文发展基金项目(Yy224014)


Research on water and sediment-ecology-economy coordinated development and limiting factors in the Yellow River Basin under influence of reservoir group operation
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.River and Coast Research Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;2.Key Laboratory of Port, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering, MOT, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China)

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    摘要:

    为识别水库群调度影响下黄河流域各区间水沙生态经济协调发展状况及制约因子,构建了考虑水库调蓄影响的综合评价指标体系,建立了改进的TOPSIS联合灰色关联分析模型,并提出了相应的耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型。结果表明:2000—2022年黄河流域上中下游区间水沙、生态、经济子系统发展指数均呈增长趋势,普遍为水沙子系统滞后型,且其发展指数与来水量显著线性相关;各区间协调发展度整体提升,下游区间稳定于良好协调水平,上中游区间自2021年起回落至中级协调水平;流域协调发展主要受水沙子系统制约,在干旱年份更为突出,上游区间主要受水资源总量与开发利用率制约,中下游区间还受制于水库排沙比与河道冲淤量等;生态与经济子系统中,不透水面积、化肥施用强度、生境指数、城乡可支配收入比和人均生活用水量等为主要制约因子。

    Abstract:

    To identify the coordinated development status and limiting factors of water and sediment-ecology-economy in various intervals of the Yellow River Basin under influence of reservoir group operation, a comprehensive evaluation index system considering the impact of reservoir regulation and storage was constructed. An improved TOPSIS joint grey relational analysis model was established, and corresponding coupled coordination degree models and obstacle degree models were proposed. The results show that from 2000 to 2022, the development index of water and sediment, ecology, and economic subsystems in the upper, middle, and lower reach intervals of the Yellow River Basin showed an increasing trend and generally a lagging type of water and sediment subsystem, and their development index was significantly linearly correlated with the inflow. The overall coordinated development degree of each interval has improved, and the lower reach interval has remained stable at a good coordination level. The upper and middle reach intervals have fallen back to a medium coordination level since 2021. The coordinated development of the basin is mainly constrained by the water and sediment subsystem, which is more prominent in drought years. The upper reach interval is mainly constrained by the total amount of water resources and development utilization rate, while the middle and lower reach intervals are also constrained by factors such as reservoir sediment discharge ratio and river channel erosion and deposition. In the ecology and economy subsystems, impermeable area, fertilizer application intensity, habitat index, urban-rural disposable income ratio, and per capita domestic water consumption are the main limiting factors.

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郑景琦,邓涯,马爱兴,等.水库群调度影响下黄河流域水沙生态经济协调发展及制约因子研究[J].水资源保护,2025,41(6):85-94.(ZHENG Jingqi, DENG Ya, MA Aixing, et al. Research on water and sediment-ecology-economy coordinated development and limiting factors in the Yellow River Basin under influence of reservoir group operation[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(6):85-94.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-05
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