西江流域水库群调度对非一致性入库径流的敏感性响应特征
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(1.三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北 宜昌 443002;2.三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002;3.西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西 西安 710048 )

作者简介:

任康(1993—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事水资源系统分析研究。E-mail:renkang@ctgu.edu.cn

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国家自然科学基金项目(52309025)


Sensitivity response characteristics of reservoir group operation in the Xijiang River Basin to non-stationary inflow runoff
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Affiliation:

(1.Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;2.College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China;3.College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China)

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    摘要:

    为揭示西江流域水库群调度对非一致性入库径流的响应特征,实现水库适应性调度运行,采用进化多目标直接策略搜索算法,构建了西江流域水库群多目标优化调度模型,求解得到权衡发电、生态、水位多目标的最优解,并在一致性和非一致性径流条件下,采用敏感性分析方法对最优解重新评估,揭示了调度目标对入库径流的敏感性响应特征。结果表明:梧州站生态缺水率和水位风险率与西江流域水库群平均出力存在显著竞争关系,调度目标对入库径流的敏感性在不同最优解间差异不显著,但对非一致性径流响应更敏感;非一致性径流丰枯变化更加显著,在一定程度上增大了梯级水库群平均出力,使梧州站生态缺水率和水位风险率更高。

    Abstract:

    To reveal the response characteristics of reservoir group operation to the non-stationary inflow runoff and achieve adaptive reservoir operation, the reservoir group in the Xijiang River Basin was used as a research object. An evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search algorithm was employed to construct a multi-objective optimization operation model for the reservoir group, and the optimal solutions that balance multiple objectives of power generation, ecology, and water level were obtained. Under both stationary and non-stationary runoff conditions, the sensitivity analysis method was used to re-evaluate the optimal solutions, and further to reveal the sensitivity response characteristics of operation objectives to inflow runoff. The results indicate that there are significant trade-off relationships between the rates of ecological water shortage and water level risk at the Wuzhou station and the average output of the reservoir group in the Xijiang River Basin. The sensitivity of operation objectives to inflow runoff does not show significant differences among different optimal solutions, but it is more responsive to non-stationary runoff. The wet-dry variations in runoff under non-stationary conditions are more pronounced, which to some extent enhances the average output of the cascade reservoir group, while also leading to higher rates of ecological water shortage and water level risks at the Wuzhou station.

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任康,周子航,李昕媛,等.西江流域水库群调度对非一致性入库径流的敏感性响应特征[J].水资源保护,2025,41(6):139-148.(REN Kang, ZHOU Zihang, LI Xinyuan, et al. Sensitivity response characteristics of reservoir group operation in the Xijiang River Basin to non-stationary inflow runoff[J]. Water Resources Protection,2025,41(6):139-148.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-05
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