气候变化下1960—2020年长江源区水文气象要素变化趋势
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(1.云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院;2.南京水利科学研究院;3.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;4.河海大学水文水资源学院;5.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;6.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室;7.水利部水利大数据重点实验室; 8.水利部水循环与水动力系统重点实验室 )

作者简介:

沈龙(1973—),男,正高级工程师,硕士,主要从事电网安全生产管理及防灾减灾研究。E-mail:13888793496@yn.csg.cn

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基金项目:

江苏省科技计划专项资金项目(BZ2024035);中国南方电网云南电网有限责任公司科技项目(YNKJXM20222329)


Change trends of hydro-meteorological elements in the Yangtze River Source Region from 1960 to 2020 under climate change
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd.;2.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;3.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University;4.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;5.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University;6.China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory;7.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources; 8.Key Laboratory of Hydrologic-Cycle and Hydrodynamic-System of Ministry of Water Resources)

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    摘要:

    基于1960—2020年长江源区水文气象要素数据,采用Pettitt非参数检验、一元线性回归等方法,系统分析了径流深、降水量、气温、潜在蒸散发及积雪特征等要素的突变特征及月尺度变化。结果表明:1960—2020年长江源区多年平均径流深为90mm,2004年后由下降趋势转为回升;年降水量于1997年出现突变,突变前以0.54mm/a的速率增加,突变后略有下降;多年平均气温为-4.5℃,自1997年起增温速率加快至0.05℃/a,显著高于此前的0.02℃/a;潜在蒸散发整体增加,突变后增幅达到6%;多年平均积雪深度为1.7cm,呈下降趋势,速率为0.1cm/a;月尺度上,径流深和降水量均表现出明显季节性波动,夏季贡献占全年的60%以上;冬季气温升幅最大,呈现典型“冷季放大效应”;干燥指数多年平均值为1.8,呈下降趋势,反映区域气候向湿润化转变;径流系数多年平均值为0.2,2004年前下降,之后出现回升,反映积雪融水及地下水补给等因素增加了水文过程复杂性。

    Abstract:

    Based on hydrometeorological data from 1960 to 2020, this study systematically analyzed the abrupt changes and monthly-scale variations in runoff depth, precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and snow characteristics in the Yangtze River Source Region from 1960 to 2020, employing methods such as the Pettitt non-parametric test and simple linear regression. The results showed that during 1960-2020 in the Yangtze River Source Region, the multi-year average annual runoff depth was 90 mm, which shifted from a declining trend to an increasing trend after 2004. Annual precipitation exhibited a mutation in 1997, increasing at a rate of 0.54 mm/a before the mutation and slightly decreasing thereafter. The mean annual temperature was -4.5℃, with the warming rate accelerating from 0.02℃/a before 1997 to 0.05℃/a afterward, significantly higher than before. Potential evapotranspiration showed an overall increase, with a 6% rise after the mutation. The multi-year average snow depth was 1.7 cm, showing a decreasing trend, with a rate of 0.1 cm/a. At the monthly scale, runoff depth and precipitation showed significant seasonal fluctuations, with summer accounting for over 60% of the annual contribution. Winter temperatures showed the largest increase, exhibiting a typical “cold-season amplification effect”. The multi-year average aridity index was 1.8, showing a downward trend, reflecting the regional climate’s transition towards humidification. The multi-year average runoff coefficient was 0.2, decreased before 2004 and then rebounded, reflecting the increased complexity of hydrological processes due to factors such as snow melting and groundwater recharge.

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沈龙,吴南,罗煜宁,等.气候变化下1960—2020年长江源区水文气象要素变化趋势[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):22-29, 69.(Shen Long, Wu Nan, Luo Yuning, et al. Change trends of hydro-meteorological elements in the Yangtze River Source Region from 1960 to 2020 under climate change[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):22-29, 69.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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