三维视角下基于CMIP6气候模式的黄河流域干旱动态演变预测
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(1.华北水利水电大学水利学院;2.黄河水文勘察测绘局;3.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院 )

作者简介:

王盈盈(1989—),女,讲师,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:763773449@qq.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006603,2024YFC3212900);国家自然科学基金项目(42301024,52179015);河南省高校科技创新人才计划项目(26HASTIT031);河南省科技攻关项目(242102321114);河南省高校青年骨干教师计划项目


Prediction of drought dynamic evolution in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 climate model from a three-dimensional perspective
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.Schoolof Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power; 2.YellowRiver Hydrographic Bureau of Surveying and Mapping; 3.Collegeof Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A & F University)

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    摘要:

    利用SSP585情景下的CMIP6气象数据驱动黄河流域VIC水文模型,基于模拟水文要素计算月尺度综合干旱指数,从三维视角分析了黄河流域未来干旱事件的演变规律。结果表明:SSP585情景下黄河流域干旱事件的严重程度呈现逐渐增强的趋势,未来时期较严重的干旱事件多集中在甘肃东部、宁夏南部以及陕西西部地区;基于干旱事件三维识别,SSP585情景下2021—2070年黄河流域共识别出172场时空连续的干旱事件,其中一场历时16月的典型复杂干旱事件(第138场)演变过程包括发生、强化、衰减、再强化、峰值、再衰减、消亡7个阶段,干旱中心迁移路径大致为东北方向;SSP585情景下,黄河流域未来季节干旱整体上以向东(东南和东北)迁移为主,春季干旱事件平均迁移距离最短,夏季干旱事件平均迁移距离最长。

    Abstract:

    This study utilizes CMIP6 meteorological data under the SSP585 scenario to drive the VIC hydrological model in the Yellow River Basin. Based on simulated hydrological elements, the monthly comprehensive drought index is calculated, and the evolution law of future drought events in the Yellow River Basin is analyzed from a three-dimensional perspective. The results show that under the SSP585 scenario, the severity of drought events in the Yellow River Basin shows a progressively intensifying trend, with future severe droughts mostly concentrated in eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, and western Shaanxi. Based on drought event three-dimensional identification, a total of 172 spatiotemporally continuous drought events were identified in the Yellow River Basin from 2021 to 2070. A detailed analysis of one of the typical complex drought events that lasted for 16 months(the 138th event) shows that its evolution process includes seven stages: occurrence, strengthening, attenuation, re strengthening, peak, reattenuation, and extinction. The migration path of the drought center is roughly in the northeast direction. Under the SSP585 scenario, future seasonal droughts in the Yellow River Basin are projected to migrate predominantly eastward (southeastward and northeastward), with spring droughts having the shortest average migration distance and summer droughts the longest.

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王盈盈,许桂平,袁浩博,等.三维视角下基于CMIP6气候模式的黄河流域干旱动态演变预测[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):70-79.(Wang Yingying, Xu Guiping, Yuan Haobo, et al. Prediction of drought dynamic evolution in the Yellow River Basin based on CMIP6 climate model from a three-dimensional perspective[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):70-79.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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