黄河流域复合型水文干旱高温热浪事件变化及相对贡献分析
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(武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室 )

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杨瑀露(2001—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文气象研究。E-mail:yulu_yang@whu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(W2412158);湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2025AFA023)


Changes in compound hydrological drought-heat wave events in the Yellow River Basin and relative contribution analysis
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(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University)

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    摘要:

    基于利用分位数映射法校正后的CMIP6 10个气候模式数据,驱动VIC分布式水文模型模拟黄河流域径流,利用标准化径流指数表征水文干旱,利用热浪烈度表征高温热浪,从历时、频次、烈度3个维度刻画了未来复合型水文干旱高温热浪事件(复合事件)的变化特征,并量化了单一事件及其交互作用对复合事件变化的相对贡献。结果表明:水文干旱事件在未来变化中具有明显的区域性特点,上游鄂尔多斯高原区域的水文干旱风险可能增加,相较于历史时期上中游部分地区干旱历时预估缩短1~2月,烈度降低25%~50%;随着温室气体排放浓度升高及时间推移,黄河流域高温热浪、复合事件的历时、频次和烈度均呈现增加趋势;SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5 3种情景下,复合事件历时延长0.1~12d,频次增加0.1~2次/a,烈度增强10%~230%;高温热浪增加是导致未来复合事件变化的主要原因,黄河流域大部分地区高温热浪在未来近期的相对贡献占比60%及以上,远期升至70%;交互作用对复合事件变化的相对贡献较低,未来近、远两期占比均为20%及以下。

    Abstract:

    Based on the calibrated data of ten global climate models of CMIP6 using quantile mapping method, the VIC distributed hydrological model was driven to simulate the runoff of the Yellow River Basin. The standardized runoff index was used to characterize hydrological drought, and the heat wave intensity was used to characterize heat waves. The change characteristics of future compound hydrological drought-heat wave events(compound events) were characterized from three dimensions, including duration, frequency, and intensity. And the relative contribution of single events and their interactions to the changes in compound events was quantified. The results indicate that hydrological drought events have obvious regional characteristics in future changes. The hydrological drought risk in the upstream Ordos Plateau region may increase, and the estimated drought duration in some areas of the upper and middle reaches may be shortened by 12 months, with a 25% to 50% decrease in intensity, compared to historical periods. With the increase in greenhouse gas emissions concentration and the passage of time, the duration, frequency, and intensity of heat waves and compound events in the Yellow River Basin have shown an increasing trend. Under three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP58.5, the duration of the composite event is prolonged by 0.1-12 d, the frequency increases by 0.1-2 times per year, and the intensity increases by 10% 230%. The increase in heat waves is the main reason for the changes in future compound events. In most areas of the Yellow River Basin, the relative contribution of heat waves in the near future is 60% or more, and in the long term it will rise to 70%. The relative contribution of interaction to the changes in compound events is relatively low, with a proportion of 20% or less in both the near and far future periods.

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引用本文

杨瑀露,陈杰.黄河流域复合型水文干旱高温热浪事件变化及相对贡献分析[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):80-92.(Yang Yulu, Chen Jie. Changes in compound hydrological drought-heat wave events in the Yellow River Basin and relative contribution analysis[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):80-92.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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