1961—2018年南水北调中线水网区水文干旱时空演变与区域分异研究
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(南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室 )

作者简介:

杨子谦(1996—),男,博士研究生,主要从事干旱及水文遥感研究。E-mail:njnuyzq1996@163.com

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006601);国家自然科学基金项目(U2240223,52409040)


Study on spatiotemporal evolution and regional differentiation of hydrological drought in water network area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project from 1961 to 2018
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(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

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    摘要:

    基于三维聚类算法识别了1961—2018年南水北调中线水网区的历史水文干旱事件,定量分析了历史干旱集群与特大干旱事件的时空演化过程,揭示了水源区与受水区的水资源亏缺时空遭遇规律,探讨了干旱空间分异的潜在成因以及水网密度对干旱历时的影响。结果表明:1961—2018年水网区发生多场长历时、大范围的特大干旱和重旱事件,与实际旱情基本吻合;水源区与受水区的干旱呈现显著的时空分异特征,与降水和下垫面条件的差异有关;受水区干旱频次、强度显著高于水源区,但在20世纪90年代水源区干旱频次有所上升,在21世纪后与受水区呈现时空异步现象;水网密度对干旱历时存在一定调节作用,但存在边际效应。

    Abstract:

    Based on the three-dimensional clustering algorithm, historical hydrological drought events in the water network area of the South to North Water Diversion Middle Route Project from 1961 to 2018 were identified. The spatiotemporal evolution process of historical drought clusters and severe drought events was quantitatively analyzed, revealing the spatiotemporal encounter patterns of water deficit in the water source and water receiving areas. The potential causes of spatial differentiation of drought and the influence of water network density on drought duration were explored. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2018, multiple prolonged and large-scale extreme and severe drought events occurred in the water network area, which are basically consistent with the actual drought situation. The drought in the water source and water receiving areas shows significant spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics, which are related to differences in precipitation and underlying surface conditions. The frequency and intensity of drought in the water receiving area are significantly higher than those in the water source area. But in the 1990s, the frequency of drought in the water source area increased, and after the 21st Century, it showed a spatiotemporal asynchronous phenomenon with the water receiving area. The density of water networks has a certain regulatory effect on drought duration, but there is a marginal effect.

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杨子谦,王宗志,万文华,等.1961—2018年南水北调中线水网区水文干旱时空演变与区域分异研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):93-102.(Yang Ziqian, Wang Zongzhi, Wan Wenhua, et al. Study on spatiotemporal evolution and regional differentiation of hydrological drought in water network area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project from 1961 to 2018[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):93-102.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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