融合ResNet-18与水动力模型的洪水演进快速预测
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(1.武汉理工大学船海与能源动力工程学院;2.长江信达软件技术(武汉)有限责任公司 )

作者简介:

童超(1993—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事海洋与河流水动力研究。E-mail:tongchao@whut.edu.cn

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武汉理工大学科研启动基金项目(10940121028)


Rapid flood evolution prediction by integrating ResNet-18 and hydrodynamic model
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(1.School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Energy Power Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology; 2.ChangjiangSchinta Software Technology (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.)

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    摘要:

    为实现高精度和高效率洪水演进预测,结合数据驱动与物理建模的双重优势,提出了融合残差神经网络(ResNet-18)与水动力模型Telemac2D的洪水演进快速预测算法,将Telemac2D生成的高精度洪水淹没数据作为训练样本,构建了基于一维ResNet-18的深度神经网络模型,并利用该模型对黄柏河流域下游尚家河河段洪水淹没水深与演进路径进行了实时动态预测和对比验证。结果表明:构建的ResNet-18模型对240组测试集预报结果的平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为0.033 2m和0.0898m,淹没范围的空间分布与Telemac2D模拟结果高度一致,相关系数达0.998 1,对测量点水深的预测结果比卷积神经网络模型更精确,且计算效率相较传统水动力模型提升超300倍。

    Abstract:

    To achieve high-precision and high-efficiency flood evolution prediction, a rapid flood evolution prediction algorithm that combined the dual advantages of data driving and physical modelling was proposed by integrating the residual neural network (ResNet18) and the hydrodynamic model Telemac2D. High precision flood inundation data generated by Telemac2D were used as training samples to construct a deep neural network model based on the one dimensional ResNet 18. This model was subsequently employed to conduct real time dynamic predictions and comparative verification of flood inundation depth and evolution pathways in the Shangjia River section of the lower Huangbai River Basin. The results demonstrated that for the 240 test sets, the developed ResNet 18 model achieved a mean absolute error of 0.033 2 m and a root mean square error of 0.089 8 m, respectively. The spatial distribution of the predicted inundation extent exhibited a high degree of consistency with simulation results from Telemac2D, with a correlation coefficient of 0.998 1. Furthermore, the model provided more accurate water depth predictions at measurement points compared to the convolutional neural network model and enhanced computational efficiency by over 300 times relative to the traditional hydrodynamic model.

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童超,詹晗煜,崔罡,等.融合ResNet-18与水动力模型的洪水演进快速预测[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):129-136.(Tong Chao, Zhan Hanyu, Cui Gang, et al. Rapid flood evolution prediction by integrating ResNet-18 and hydrodynamic model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):129-136.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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