结合注意力机制的ConvLSTM与新安江模型相融合的混合水文模型
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(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;2.河海大学水文水资源学院;3.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;4.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室;5.水利部水利大数据重点实验室 )

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张珂(1979—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:kzhang@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500);山东省水文中心采购项目(37000000025001720250245,37000000025001720240235)


A hybrid hydrological model integrating attention-based convolutional long short-term memory neural network with Xin’anjiang model
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Affiliation:

(1.The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University; 2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University; 3.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University; 4.ChinaMeteorological Administration HydroMeteorology Key Laboratory; 5.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources)

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    摘要:

    为提高新安江模型(XAJ)在中小流域汇流计算中的精度,构建了结合注意力机制的卷积长短期记忆神经网络(ConvLSTM),用于替代XAJ中的汇流模块,从而建立了结合物理机制与机器学习技术的混合水文模型XAJ-ACL,基于呈村流域实测数据,探究了XAJ-ACL在中小流域有限样本容量条件下的性能,并分别采用ConvLSTM和传统LSTM替代XAJ汇流模块,构建了混合水文模型XAJ-CL和XAJ-LSTM进行对比分析。结果表明:在呈村流域径流模拟中,XAJ-ACL的模拟精度优于XAJ,测试期XAJ-ACL的纳什效率系数为0.85,相关系数为0.93,均高于XAJ;在3组小容量样本训练中,测试期XAJ-ACL的平均纳什效率系数分别为0.847、0.832和0.808,均高于XAJ-CL和XAJ-LSTM,且模拟结果表现出更好的稳定性;与XAJ相比,XAJ-ACL显著提升了有限资料条件下对中小流域汇流过程非线性规律的模拟能力。

    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of the Xin’anjiang model(ConvLSTM)integrating attention mechanism was constructed to replace the confluence module in XAJ, thereby establishing a hybrid hydrological model XAJ ACL that combined physical mechanisms and machine learning techniques. The performance of XAJ ACL under the condition of limited sample capacity in small and medium sized watersheds was explored based on the measured data of the Chengcun Watershed. To further evaluated the effect of XAJ ACL, ConvLSTM and the traditional LSTM were respectively adopted to replace the confluence module in XAJ, and two additional hybrid hydrological models, XAJ CL and XAJ LSTM, were constructed for comparative analysis with XAJ ACL. The results show that in runoff simulation of the Chengcun Watershed, the simulation accuracy of XAJ ACL is superior to that of XAJ. During the testing period, the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of XAJ ACL is 0.85, and the correlation coefficient is 0.93, both of which are higher than those of XAJ. In training of three sets of small capacity samples, the average NSE values of XAJ ACL during the testing period were 0.847, 0.832, and 0.808, respectively, all higher than those of XAJ CL and XAJ LSTM, and the simulation results showed better stability. Compared with XAJ, XAJ ACL significantly improves the ability for simulation of nonlinear laws of confluence processes in small and medium sized watersheds under limited data conditions.

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张珂,刘杰,王宇昊,等.结合注意力机制的ConvLSTM与新安江模型相融合的混合水文模型[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):137-143, 151.(Zhang Ke, Liu Jie, Wang Yuhao, et al. A hybrid hydrological model integrating attention-based convolutional long short-term memory neural network with Xin’anjiang model[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):137-143, 151.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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