基于相位随机化的中国日降水随机模拟研究
作者:
作者单位:

(1.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院;2.西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室 )

作者简介:

张炳林(1995—),男,博士研究生,主要从事流域水文模拟预报研究。E-mail:zbl0377@126.com

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(52379026)


Random simulation of daily precipitation in China based on phase randomization
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A & F University;2.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education, Northwest A & F University)

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    摘要:

    利用中国696个气象站1960—2017年日降水资料,构建基于1阶离散自回归(DAR(1)与相位随机化模拟(PRS)的频域模型(PRS-DAR(1),并与经典WeaGETS模型对比,检验两者在分布特征、时间相干性和多站点空间相干性上的表现。结果表明:PRS-DAR(1)模型能更准确地再现日降水序列的统计特征,尤其在时间和空间相干性方面优于WeaGETS模型;在不同日均降水量区间和空间分布上,PRS-DAR(1)模型均表现出较强的适用性,可为改进传统降水生成模型、提升日降水模拟精度提供一种新途径。

    Abstract:

    Based on the daily precipitation data observed at 696 meteorological stations across China during the period from 1960 to 2017, a frequency-domain model(PRS DAR(1)) was established by integrating the first order discrete autoregressive model (DAR(1)) with phase randomization simulation(PRS) method. The performance of proposed model was compared with that of the classical WeaGETS model in terms of distribution characteristics, temporal coherence, and multi site spatial coherence. The results indicate that PRS DAR(1) model can more accurately reproduce the statistical characteristics of daily precipitation sequences, and it outperforms WeaGETS model especially in terms of temporal and spatial coherence. Moreover, PRS DAR(1) model exhibits strong applicability across different daily average precipitation intervals and spatial distributions. The results in this paper provide a new approach for improving traditional precipitation generation models and enhancing the accuracy of daily precipitation simulation.

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张炳林,宋松柏,曾文颖.基于相位随机化的中国日降水随机模拟研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(1):213-222.(Zhang Binglin, Song Songbai, Zeng Wenying. Random simulation of daily precipitation in China based on phase randomization[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(1):213-222.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-03
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