栅格尺度的流域洪涝韧性与洪涝风险分区研究
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(山东大学土建与水利学院 )

作者简介:

王好芳(1970—),女,副教授,博士,主要从事生态水文与生态调度研究。E-mail:whf29@sdu.edu.cn 通信作者:张金存(1977—),女,讲师,博士,主要从事分布式水文模型研究。E-mail:zhangjincun@sdu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

山东省智库高端人才成果研究转化项目(2022);山东省科学技术厅引智项目(20199748)


Research on flood resilience and flood risk zoning in river basin at grid cell scale
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(School of Civil Engineering, Shandong University)

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    摘要:

    为准确识别洪涝韧性与风险的空间分布特征并划定洪水管理分区,构建了泮河流域大河水库下游MIKE FLOOD水文水动力耦合模型,引入系统性能函数计算栅格尺度的洪涝韧性,开展了超标准洪水下的洪涝韧性与洪涝风险分区研究。结果表明:综合考虑栅格单元的淹没水深、淹没流速及土地利用类型的系统性能函数能更真实地反映流域系统承受洪涝扰动的能力,基于该系统性能函数评估的洪涝韧性结果更为科学合理;研究区洪涝韧性呈现显著的空间异质性,整体表现为上游高、下游低的空间分布特征,且与土地利用类型存在显著相关性,相关系数大小依次为草地、林地、耕地、道路、建设用地;研究区洪涝风险呈左岸高、右岸低的空间分布特征,随着洪水频率的减小,高风险栅格和较高风险栅格占比逐渐增大,中风险栅格占比先增后减,低风险栅格占比不断减小;基于洪涝韧性风险耦合分析,识别出4类典型分区,包括高韧性低风险区(河道顺直且地势平缓段)、低韧性低风险区(中下游城镇化区)、低韧性高风险区(河道弯曲段及支流汇入段)、高韧性高风险区(河道急弯段及断面收缩段)。

    Abstract:

    To accurately identify the spatial distribution characteristics of flood resilience and risk and delineate flood management zones, a MIKE FLOOD hydrodynamic-hydraulic coupled model for the downstream of the Dahe Reservoir in the Pan River Basin was constructed. A system performance function was introduced to calculate the flood resilience of each grid cell, and the study on flood resilience and flood risk under extreme floods was conducted. The results show that the system performance function, which comprehensively considers the inundation depth, inundation velocity, and land use type of each grid cell, can more accurately reflect the ability of the basin system to withstand flood disturbances. The flood resilience results evaluated based on this system performance function are more scientific and reasonable. The flood resilience in the study area shows significant spatial heterogeneity, generally presenting a pattern of high in the upstream and low in the downstream, and has a significant correlation with land use types, with the order of correlation being grassland, forest land, cultivated land, road, and construction land. The flood risk in the study area shows a spatial distribution pattern of high on the left bank and low on the right bank. As the frequency of floods decreases, the proportions of high-risk grids and relatively high-risk grids gradually increase, the proportion of medium-risk grid cells first increases and then decreases, and the proportion of low-risk grid cells continuously decreases. Based on the coupled analysis of flood resilience and risk, four typical zones were identified:high resilience-low risk zone (straight river sections with gentle terrain), low resiliencelow risk zone (urbanized areas in the middle and lower reaches), low resilience high risk zone (bendy river sections and confluence sections of tributaries), and high resilience high risk zone (sharp bend sections and sections with contracted cross sections).

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王好芳,张祎珂,陈怡馨,等.栅格尺度的流域洪涝韧性与洪涝风险分区研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):59-67, 99.(Wang Haofang, Zhang Yike, Chen Yixin, et al. Research on flood resilience and flood risk zoning in river basin at grid cell scale[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(2):59-67, 99.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-26
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