永定河流域水文响应变化归因与驱动因素研究
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作者单位:

(1.太原师范学院地理科学学院;2.汾河流域地表过程与资源生态安全山西省重点实验室;3.江苏汇智工程技术有限公司;4.南京水利科学研究院水灾害防御全国重点实验室;5.河海大学水科学研究院)

作者简介:

牛凯杰(1989—),男,讲师,博士,主要从事水文生态研究。E-mail:nkj3596@163.com 通信作者:王磊之(1991—),男,高级工程师,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:wanglz@nhri.cn

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基金项目:

山西省基础研究计划项目(202303021212381);山西省科技战略研究专项项目(202404030401145);山西省文化、旅游、创意产业发展调研专项课题基金项目(SXSKWC2023073)


Research on attribution and driving factors of hydrological response changes in the Yongding River Basin
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.School of Geographical Sciences, Taiyuan Normal University;2.Shanxi Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Resource Ecological Security in Fenhe River Basin;3.Jiangsu Huizhi Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd.;4.TheNational Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute;5.Institute of Water Science and Technology, Hohai University)

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    摘要:

    为分析永定河流域主要干支流水文响应变化趋势和变异特征,提出了天然径流变异归因分析方法并对永定河流域水文响应变化进行了定量归因分析,探讨了永定河流域水文响应变化的驱动因素。结果表明:永定河流域主要干支流年天然径流均呈现显著衰减趋势,并于20世纪80年代初期发生了突变,突变前后流域水文响应发生较大结构性变化;气候变化对永定河干支流天然径流衰减的贡献率为10.9%~24.5%,人类活动的贡献率为75.5%~89.1%;永定河流域降水时程分布均匀化、气候变暖变干、植被覆盖增加、地下水开采是流域天然径流与水文响应变化的主要驱动因素。

    Abstract:

    To analyze the changing trends and variation characteristics of the hydrological response of the main trunk and tributaries in the Yongding River Basin, a method for attributing variations in natural runoff was proposed, and a quantitatively attribution analysis of the changes in the hydrological response of the Yongding River Basin was conducted. Then the driving factors of the changes in the hydrological response were also explored. The results demonstrate that the annual natural runoff of the main trunk and tributaries in the Yongding River Basin shows a significant attenuation trend, and a sudden change occurred in the early 1980s. The hydrological response of the basin experiences significant structural changes before and after the sudden change. The contribution rate of climate change to the decline of natural runoff of the trunk and tributaries in the Yongding River is 10.9% to 24.5%, while the contribution rate of human activities is 75.5% to 89.1%. The uniformization distribution of precipitation time course, warming and drying climate, increased vegetation cover, and groundwater extraction are the main driving factors for changes in natural runoff and hydrological response in the Yongding River Basin.

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牛凯杰,吴为,刘庚,等.永定河流域水文响应变化归因与驱动因素研究[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):140-150.(Niu Kaijie, Wu Wei, Liu Geng, et al. Research on attribution and driving factors of hydrological response changes in the Yongding River Basin[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(2):140-150.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-26
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