基于DeepTCN与动态特征提取的多变量径流预测模型
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(1.河南理工大学软件学院;2.河南理工大学资源环境学院;3.河南理工大学应急管理学院)

作者简介:

高佳佳(1991—),女,助教,硕士,主要从事人工智能及机器学习模型研究。E-mail:gjj@hpu.edu.cn 通信作者:陈越超(1991—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文循环过程模拟及机器学习应用研究。E-mail:10460230792@hpu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42472058);陕西省煤矿水害防治技术重点实验室开放基金项目(2021SKMS04);河南理工大学2025年度基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NSFRF2502119);河南理工大学博士基金项目(B2022-38,B2023-59);河南理工大学教学改革研究与实践项目(2024XJJGXM25)


Multivariate runoff prediction model based on DeepTCN and dynamic feature extraction
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(1.School of Software,Henan Polytechnic University; 2.School of Resources and Environment, Henan Polytechnic University; 3.Schoolof Emergency Management, Henan Polytechnic University)

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    摘要:

    为捕捉水文过程中的动态变化规律,提高预测精度,通过3种相关性分析结合协方差分析,系统解析了不同气象因素与径流量的相关性,动态提取了对径流预测有高贡献的特征并进行权重优化,进而基于深度时间卷积网络(DeepTCN)构建了多特征径流预测的p-DeepTCN模型,以捕捉径流序列数据中的长期依赖关系和短期波动。利用北海道厚真川流域2015—2020年的实测数据对p-DeepTCN模型进行验证,结果表明:构建的p-DeepTCN模型在预测性能上优于其他深度学习模型,p-DeepTCN模型的纳什效率系数提升了28.48%,均方根误差降低了27.63%;百分比偏差虽比WPMixer模型高23.34%,但比其他深度学习模型降低了17.44%;决定系数虽比DeepTCN模型低0.011,但比其他深度学习模型高10.17%;p-DeepTCN模型显著提高了径流预测的准确性,表现出更好的适应性和鲁棒性。

    Abstract:

    To capture the dynamic variation laws of hydrological processes and improve runoff prediction accuracy, by combining three kinds of correlation analysis with covariance analysis, we systematically analyzed the correlation characteristics between different meteorological variables and runoff, dynamically extracted high-contribution features for runoff prediction and optimized their weights. Then, based on the deep temporal convolutional network(DeepTCN), a p DeepTCN model for multi feature runoff prediction was constructed to capture both the long term dependencies and short term fluctuations in runoff sequence. The measured data of the Atsuma River Basin in Hokkaido from 2015 to 2020 were used to verify the pDeepTCN model, and the results show that the p DeepTCN model achieves the optimal prediction performance compared with other deep learning models. Specifically, the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of the pDeepTCN model is increased by 28.48%, and the root mean square error is reduced by 27.63%. Although its percent bias is 23.34% higher than that of the WPMixer model, it is 17.44% lower than that of the other deep learning models. Meanwhile, although its coefficient of determination is 0.011 lower than that of the original DeepTCN model, it is 10.17% higher than that of other deep learning models. In summary, the pDeepTCN model significantly improves the accuracy of runoff prediction, and exhibits superior adaptability and robustness.

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高佳佳,陈柏成,陈越超,等.基于DeepTCN与动态特征提取的多变量径流预测模型[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):161-168, 178.(Gao Jiajia, Chen Baicheng, Chen Yuechao, et al. Multivariate runoff prediction model based on DeepTCN and dynamic feature extraction[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(2):161-168, 178.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-26
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