基于非一致性偏差校正方法的黄淮海和江淮平原CMIP6模式降水偏差校正与评估
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作者单位:

(1.河海大学水文水资源学院;2.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室;3.长江水利委员会长江中游水文水资源勘测局;4.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;5.河海大学长江保护与绿色发展研究院;6.水利部水利大数据重点实验室)

作者简介:

林娟(2000—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:linjuan@hhu.edu.cn 通信作者:李新(1987—),男,副教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:xinli@hhu.edu.cn

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基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240203007);中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放课题项目(23SWQXM045)


Bias correction and evaluation of CMIP6 model precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai plains based on non-stationary bias correction method
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University; 2.ChinaMeteorological Administration HydroMeteorology Key Laboratory; 3.MiddleChangjiang River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey, Changjiang Water Resources Commission; 4.TheNational Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University; 5.Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Hohai University; 6.Key Laboratory of Water Big Data Technology of Ministry of Water Resources)

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    摘要:

    基于黄淮海和江淮平原日尺度格点化降水数据集,采用基于分位数增量映射法和秩重抽样法的非一致性偏差校正方法对黄淮海和江淮平原23个CMIP6模式的降水模拟结果进行偏差校正,从气候态平均降水和极端降水两方面评估了偏差校正前后CMIP6模式的模拟性能。结果表明:CMIP6多模式集合高估了平原区多年平均降水量,呈现夏季低估,其他季节高估的现象;CMIP6多模式集合高估了极端降水发生的频率和最长连续湿润期,但低估了极端降水强度和最长连续干旱期;非一致性偏差校正方法显著提升了CMIP6模式及多模式集合对黄淮海和江淮平原降水的模拟能力,偏差校正后CMIP6多模式集合对气候态平均降水的模拟偏差在±10%以内,对8个极端降水指数TS评分的平均值提升了约10%。

    Abstract:

    This study applies a non-stationary bias correction method, integrating techniques of quantile delta mapping and rank resampling for distributions and dependencies, to evaluate and enhance precipitation simulations from 23 CMIP6 models over the Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai plains using daily gridded precipitation datasets, examining model performance in reproducing both climatological mean precipitation patterns and extreme precipitation characteristics before and after bias correction. The results show that, prior to correction, the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble demonstrates systematic overestimation of mean annual precipitation across both plains, characterized by underestimation in summer and overestimation in other seasons, while regarding extreme precipitation events, the uncorrected ensemble exhibits overestimation of precipitation frequency and maximum consecutive wet periods alongside underestimation of precipitation intensity and maximum consecutive dry periods. The implementation of non-stationary bias correction method yields substantial improvements in CMIP6 precipitation simulation capabilities, with post-correction results demonstrating climatological mean precipitation biases constrained within ±10% and average TS scores for eight extreme precipitation indicators enhanced by approximately 10%.

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林娟,李新,张鹏程,等.基于非一致性偏差校正方法的黄淮海和江淮平原CMIP6模式降水偏差校正与评估[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):169-178.(Lin Juan, Li Xin, Zhang Pengcheng, et al. Bias correction and evaluation of CMIP6 model precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai plains based on non-stationary bias correction method[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(2):169-178.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-26
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