To identify the water resources carrying capacity level of the water-receiving area in Henan section of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity was established based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR) framework. The improved vertical and horizontal scatter degree method and spatial autocorrelation model were adopted to quantitatively measure the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in the study area from 2014 to 2023. Furthermore, the system dynamics(SD) method was applied to simulate the changing trends of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios. The results show that the water resources carrying capacity in the Henan section of Middle Route of the South to North Water Diversion Project exhibits a spiral upward trend, and the overall variation trend of the five subsystems(driving force, pressure, state, impact and response) is basically consistent with that of water resources carrying capacity. The water resources carrying capacity of each city is concentrated in three states：weak bearable, critical and overloaded. The spatial distribution pattern has evolved from strong in the south and weak in the north to strong in the interior and weak in the periphery, with the regional spatial difference continuously narrowing. The comprehensive ranking of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios from high to low is as follows：comprehensive development scenario, environmental protection & water saving scenario, status quo continuation scenario, and economic developmentoriented scenario.