长江流域复杂水资源系统风险网络特征的工程影响解析
作者:
作者单位:

(1.河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室;2.河海大学水文水资源学院;3.河海大学洪涝灾害风险预警与防控应急管理部重点实验室;4.长江水利委员会长江水文局;5.水利部黄河水利委员会;6.水利部水利水电规划设计总院;7.黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司; 8.长江水利委员会长江科学院)

作者简介:

冯仲恺(1988—),男,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:myfellow@163.com

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中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300);国家自然科学基金项目(52441901,52379009);江苏省自然科学基金优秀青年项目(BK20240189);北京江河水利发展基金会水利青年科技英才项目(JHYC202310);江苏省科技智库计划项目(JSKX 0225 047)


Project impact analysis on risk network features of the Yangtze River Basin complex water resources system
Author:
Affiliation:

(1.State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University;2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University;3.Key Laboratory of Flood Disaster Risk Warning, Prevention and Mitigation, Ministry of Emergency Management, Hohai University;4.Changjiang Hydrological Bureau of Changjiang Water Resources Commission;5.Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources;6.Ministry of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design Institute;7.Yellow River Survey, Planning, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd.; 8.Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

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    摘要:

    采用复杂网络理论与因果诊断技术,构建了长江流域“气象水文社会经济生态水利工程”多维耦合风险网络,并基于节点度、小世界系数等网络拓扑指标,系统揭示了南水北调、三峡工程、引江济太及牛栏江补水等典型水利工程对系统特征的影响机制。结果表明:长江流域复杂水资源系统风险网络包含368个节点和1208条边,呈现显著的小世界网络特性,表现出“气象/生态要素驱动上游、社会经济要素驱动中下游”的差异化空间分布规律;网络存在5条长链,呈现“上游短链局地传导、中下游长链跨区胁迫”的双模态拓扑结构特征。通过典型情景量化分析发现:南水北调、引江济太及牛栏江补水工程分别使小世界系数提升5.45%、4.43%、0.99%,对网络结构优化及系统稳定具有积极作用;三峡工程因重构水文路径导致小世界系数下降1.23%,被识别为流域核心控制工程,有利于增强局部鲁棒性,提升流域系统在关键节点失效时的适应性;引江济太工程连通新因果链缓解了太湖区域生态级联效应,南水北调工程提升了跨区网络稳健性。基于此,提出了节点预警、路径阻断与网络协同的多尺度阻断策略。

    Abstract:

    This study constructed a multi-dimensional coupled risk network for the Yangtze River Basin’s “meteorology-hydrology-socioeconomic-ecology-water conservancy projects” using complex network theory and causal diagnosis technology. Based on network topological indices(e.g., node degree, small world coefficient), the influence mechanisms of typical water conservancy projects including the South to North Water Diversion Project, Three Gorges Project, Water Diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake, and Niulanjiang River Water Supplement Project on system characteristics were systematically revealed. Results show that: The risk network of the Yangtze River Basin’s complex water resources system contains 368 nodes and 1208 edges, exhibiting significant small world network characteristics. It displays differentiated spatial distribution patterns of “meteorological/ecological factors driving the upstream and socio economic factors driving the middle and lower reaches.” The network features 5 long chains, presenting bimodal topological structural characteristics: “local conduction via short chains in the upstream and cross regional coercion via long chains in the middle and lower reaches.”Quantitative analysis of typical scenarios reveals that: The South to North Water Diversion Project, Water Diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake, and Niulanjiang River Water Supplement Project increased the small world coefficient by 5.45%, 4.43%, and 0.99%, respectively, playing positive roles in optimizing network structure and maintaining system stability. The Three Gorges Project led to a 1.23% decrease in the small world coefficient due to hydrological path reconstruction and was identified as the core control project of the basin, which helps enhance local robustness and improve the system’s adaptability to failures of key nodes. The Water Diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake alleviates the ecological cascade effect in the Taihu Lake region by connecting new causal chains, while the South to North Water Diversion Project enhances the robustness of the cross regional network. Based on these findings, multi scale blocking strategies integrating node level early warning, path interception, and network wide coordination are proposed.

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冯仲恺,杨晓静,牛文静,等.长江流域复杂水资源系统风险网络特征的工程影响解析[J].水资源保护,2026,42(3):9-22, 56.(Feng Zhongkai, Yang Xiaojing, Niu Wenjing, et al. Project impact analysis on risk network features of the Yangtze River Basin complex water resources system[J]. Water Resources Protection,2026,42(3):9-22, 56.(in Chinese))

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-16
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